In the diplomatic arena, what isn’t visible ends up having the most political weight – much more than what appears on the news. This week, television crews have shadowed María Corina Machado all around Madrid, and certainly the optics have been electric. Crowds hummed with enthusiasm in Puerta del Sol as the Caracas challenger shared fiery rhetoric alongside leaders from the Popular Party (PP) and Vox, leaving a vivid impression of a “president in waiting.” Yet, behind Moncloa’s heavy doors and the curtains at Zarzuela Palace – where cameras do not reach – the atmosphere was markedly more somber.
It’s worth putting María Corina Machado’s strategy into perspective. In a sense, the outset looked promising when she met with King Felipe VI in Chile, at the inauguration of President Kast. That entry through the Head of State proved an ideal starting point, especially given that these are very complex times in Spanish politics. Above all, the King is viewed as a neutral figure capable of acknowledging the Venezuelan opposition’s tireless work in favor of democracy. But that hopeful beginning hasn’t blossomed, and this week, Machado’s strategy took a substantial hit when she declined a meeting with Spain’s President of the Government during her visit.
“The opposition figure may have exchanged her strongest institutional shield for a few fleeting moments of partisan applause”
This isn’t merely a missed opportunity for a valuable photo-opportunity (and perhaps one that could have been beneficial). For Machado – who asserts leadership on both national unity and the restoration of democracy – the choice to bypass Pedro Sánchez represented a strategic misstep. In the intricate triangulation between Madrid, Brussels, and Washington, the opposition figure may have traded her strongest institutional shield for a few ephemeral moments of partisan applause.
Everyone’s president?
One fundamental requirement for any leader aspiring to replace a dictator is to undergo the transition from resistance leader to statesperson – to be both a legitimate representative of popular sovereignty and the head of a viable political project. The first part aligns well with Machado’s main argument to the international community: she represents not a faction but an entire nation, the “real” Venezuela.
Nonetheless, by limiting her official engagements in Madrid to ideological allies from the right and radical right – the latter having grown increasingly critical of the King of Spain – María Corina Machado has effectively partisanized the Venezuelan cause. In Spain, the Presidency is an institution, not merely a person, and to ignore Pedro Sánchez is to ignore millions of citizens.
The ideological rift is well known. Pedro Sánchez and former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero do not navigate with the same compass as Machado and Edmundo González. Yet if she lacks the pragmatic resolve to sit at a negotiating table with a social democrat in Madrid, doubt will naturally arise about how she intends to handle the delicate, often murky task of negotiating with the remnants of the Chavista apparatus in Caracas.
“Pedro Sánchez is the president of a country in the act of regularizing – that is, dignifying – the lives of between 150,000 and 200,000 Venezuelans”
And by the way, whether one approves of him or not, Pedro Sánchez is the president of a country in the act of regularizing – that is, dignifying – the lives of between 150,000 and 200,000 Venezuelans. Spain hosts the largest Venezuelan population by far within the EU, a point acknowledged recently by Leopoldo López, another opponent whose ideological views differ sharply from Sánchez’s. Because if Caracas serves as one political center for Venezuela’s opposition, Madrid is another.
The European Union enters the equation
We must also take Brussels into account. Spain isn’t merely a peripheral actor in Latin American affairs. Beyond historical ties, it should be recalled that the President of the Government holds one of the 27 seats on the European Council. For Machado, the calculation should have been straightforward: Spain stands among Europe’s guardians of legitimacy.
“By distancing herself from Spain’s president, Machado has silenced her own voice at the table where real decisions are made”
While the European Parliament can pass symbolic resolutions in her favor, it is the Council – where Sánchez has a vote, and the leverage to work with his counterparts in Berlin and Paris – that decides on the renewal of sanctions, the formal recognition of election results, and the deployment of diplomatic missions. By shunning Spain’s president, Machado has silenced her own voice at the table where real decisions are made. We mustn’t forget that the EU put Latin American politics on the table from the moment Spain joined the bloc four decades ago. It wasn’t France or Italy that made that policy possible.
Trump’s shadow and the European shield
On the other side of the Atlantic, uncertainties persist that María Corina and her team have been weighing for some time. There is a palpable concern in many European capitals that Trump’s choices would translate into a disorganised or merely extractive approach toward Caracas, bypassing the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people. Consequently, we must ask: can Machado’s circle completely rule out the possibility that Trump could withdraw his backing for democratic elections?
Meanwhile, Spain, aligned with its president, stands among the nations most actively opposing Trump, and Machado, given her particular rapport with the U.S. president, might have found it advantageous to sit down with Pedro Sánchez. Indeed, ironically, Pedro Sánchez could be her most effective insurance policy. He needs the EU to stand firm against Washington’s unpredictable moves, so he seeks the Union to demonstrate the moral and political heft required to challenge unilateral actions by the White House.
An inaccurate reading of Spanish national politics
The Venezuelan leader has also misunderstood Spain’s national agenda. Within the strict hierarchy of Spanish protocol, everything emanates from the Executive. By avoiding a meeting with Sánchez during her trip, Machado closed Zarzuela’s doors. With that choice, she opted for the temporary warmth of a political rally over the enduring value of institutional recognition, when she could have had both.
“Perhaps with an eye to the polls, Machado’s advisors probably believed that exclusive reliance on Vox and the PP would be taken as a sign of strength”
Another concern is Spain’s optics on the domestic scene. Perhaps, aiming for the polls, Machado’s advisers may have believed that focusing solely on Vox and the PP would signal strength. But when Machado appears alone on the balconies of the regional government led by the PP, she risks alienating the center-left segments of both the Spanish electorate and the Venezuelan community. In short, her tactic has allowed and even encouraged her cause to be used as a political projectile in Spain’s internal affairs. Such tactics rarely pay long-term diplomatic dividends.
Let’s talk about audacity. Let’s talk about diplomacy
María Corina Machado is undoubtedly a figure of immense political and personal bravery. Her talent for mobilising a fractured nation is unmatched. Even so, her visit to Madrid reveals a worrying gap between her capacity as an opposition leader and the diplomatic finesse required of a future president.
A statesperson should understand that political interlocutors aren’t chosen for ideological purity; they are selected for their ability to help their own people. Pedro Sánchez possesses such power. He holds sway in Brussels and has the ear of European leaders, and he remains crucial to bringing Machado closer to Zarzuela.
If Machado’s aim was to energize her base, then she achieved that. But if her objective was to construct the international framework needed for a stable, recognized, and democratically authorized transition in Venezuela, she has fallen short. Very likely, the door to Moncloa was already ajar, or at least could have been opened with the right diplomatic finesse. By bypassing that door, Machado missed more than a meeting: she missed an opportunity to win over a majority in Spain and to demonstrate that she’s ready to lead a nation.
“I propose a process of reunion and forgiveness based on justice, without any kind of resentment”. That line from an interview I conducted with Machado could just as well have served as the headline after her election victory, because people like myself would vote for her, even if we disagreed on many points. Also, for historical reasons, we Spaniards regard such a statement as very important. Only through the unification of internal and external support can a free and democratic Venezuela be built.
