There is a moment, as the European legislature nears the end, of genuine negotiating fever. The window to close files, achieve political agreements, and set in motion important laws with the looming hibernation that precedes European elections—the pre-election campaign months when everything operates at half speed, and the usual numbness at the start of the next legislature, when new MEPs are still starting to learn what a “trilogue” is and how negotiations are conducted both within their institution and with the Council.
That sense of urgency is key at times to close deals and bring positions closer that, under other circumstances, would be impossible. The last moment of negotiating fervor was experienced firsthand by the Spanish government, because it occurred during Spain’s presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2023. The two subsequent presidencies, the Belgian one, the last of the previous legislature, and the Hungarian one, the first of the current legislature, suffered the effects already mentioned. That moment of inspiration does not always lead to good laws, but it certainly does help to unlock many negotiations.
“A pesar de que las siguientes elecciones serán en primavera de 2029 y que, por lo tanto, quedan tres años de legislatura, a nivel político el ciclo puede terminarse mucho antes”
As 2026 progresses, we are beginning to reach the legislature’s cruising speed, when the machinery has started to run smoothly and many of the issues that reach this moment of negotiating fever are set in motion at that stage. In the usual dynamic of European politics, over the next year key pieces will continue to be presented, taking advantage of the negotiating tension and of everyone’s familiarity with the dossiers to focus the final phase of the legislature in optimal conditions for agreement.
The problem is that, despite the next elections being in spring 2029 and thus three years left in the legislature, politically the cycle can end much earlier. Everyone is paying attention to the French presidential elections next year. Because it is true that a possible change at the Élysée could mark a historic shift in France’s European policy and in the working dynamics of the European Union, where Paris plays a central role and cooperation between the French and German governments has been the real driving force behind negotiations in Brussels.
But there are many more elections that could mark the end of the cycle. Also in 2027 Spain will hold elections, and experience points to a prolonged period of negotiations in which the Government will be in office in a caretaker capacity. Moreover, in spring of next year Finland’s parliamentary elections are held. Italy’s parliamentary elections are due toward the end of 2027, while Poland’s upcoming general elections will also be held toward the end of 2027 if there are no early elections.
“Many want to close the negotiation of the next MFF before the end of 2026, precisely to avoid the change of president at the Élysée from derailing those negotiations”
There is already a sense of urgency in several dossiers. Many want to close negotiations for the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) for the 2028-2034 period before the end of 2026, precisely to prevent the French presidential elections or the change of president at the Élysée from derailing those negotiations. But it is not only a French case. If they do not manage to close them before those elections, all governments facing elections have incentives to delay negotiations that always require significant concessions and sacrifices that capitals may not be willing to make in a full electoral environment.
Shift in Direction
Elections not only slow down agreements. They can also significantly alter the composition of the EU Council and the European Council, causing the space for consensus to tilt to the left or, more often in recent years, to the right. In this sense, the most relevant elections are obviously those in France, since polls point to the possibility that the radical-right party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, could win the presidency of the Republic, which would represent a genuine seismic shift for European politics and Franco-German cooperation.
In Spain, if a government change occurred, with the entry of the PP and Vox into the Executive, a change in some key aspects of European policy would also be detected. Although there are no major differences between Spain’s Popular Party and Socialist Party on major European matters, Vox’s entry into the Council of Ministers could indeed represent a very significant shift in the portfolios they might assume.
“In Poland, the grace period that European politics has enjoyed with Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition could run out”
In Italy, the potential novel element that upcoming general elections might introduce would not so much be a change of government, with the far-right Brothers of Italy leading the polls ahead of the social democrats, but rather the possible end of an unusual period of stability in Rome that has been embodied by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet in a national policy used to frequent changes of prime ministers. In Poland, the grace period that European politics has enjoyed with Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition in government since late 2023 could run out, even though internal struggles of the ultra-conservatives of Law and Justice (PiS) leave in the air how much of a political shift Warsaw will actually undertake.
There are many elements of the legislature already on the table, beyond the negotiation of the next MFF. The various simplification packages, the remaining piece of the Migration and Asylum Pact, and several dossiers connected to competitiveness, such as the 28 regime, are only some of them. Normally there wouldn’t be enormous pressure to close them. Those that remain pending can benefit from the moment of inspiration at the end of the legislature. But the electoral logjam of 2027, which could slow down agreements, curb negotiation pace, and amplify the 2028 legislative bottleneck, makes it advisable to advance that “agreement fever.”
