The campaign video of Manchester mayor Andy Burnham for the Makerfield by-election includes two local-band anthems: Some Might Say, by Oasis, which evokes postindustrial abandonment, and One Day Like This, by Elbow, which offers prudent optimism. Together, both songs frame Burnham’s bid in a race that seeks not only to turn him into a member of Parliament, but also to position him as the United Kingdom’s next prime minister: the country is trapped between disenchantment and the hope of something better, and his politics — rooted in the territory, public control, and civic renewal — could bridge the two worlds.
The date of June 18 in Makerfield, in the northwest of England, is formally about a parliamentary seat. In reality, it has become a barometer of a much larger question: whether the Labour Party can stem its slide in the polls, reconnect with its fractured electoral coalition, and find leadership capable of facing the rise of right-wing populism from Reform UK.
“Burnham is the figure that many MPs believe capable of rebuilding the coalition Labour needs”
Burnham is the only Labour figure with broad, cross-cutting appeal, and the only one many MPs believe can rebuild the coalition Labour needs to win the next elections. His decision to stand in Makerfield is the first step toward a Labour leadership contest. He has turned a routine by-election, with around 75,000 voters, into the closest thing the UK has seen to American-style primaries.
Reform captured around 50% of the vote in Makerfield wards in the May local elections, versus 23% for the Labour Party. Polls gave Labour only about a 5% chance of holding the seat in the next general election. Therefore, a Burnham victory would prove that the Labour Party can still win in places it has been losing. But a Reform win would be devastating, as it would indicate Labour’s problems go beyond the party’s confusing leadership under Keir Starmer.
“Makerfield is a last bastion against Nigel Farage’s radical-right politics, fed by anti-immigration sentiment”
Makerfield is understood as an existential moment for British social democracy: a last line of defense against Nigel Farage’s radical-right politics, fed by anti-immigration sentiment, tech-oligarch capitalism, and Trump-style political opportunism. It also appears to be a rare opportunity for the United Kingdom to begin closing the wound opened by the Brexit referendum.
An unusually popular politician
According to YouGov’s May 2026 popularity indicator, Burnham is the only significant Labour figure with a positive net rating among the public (+4), and the only figure viewed favorably by a majority of Labour voters in 2024 (57%). Even among Liberal Democrat and Green voters he maintains solid positive ratings (+24 and +18, respectively).
His Northern, working-class origins — the son of a telephone technician and a receptionist —, as well as his long-standing ties to Makerfield, reinforce an image of authenticity. He is a lifelong Everton supporter, prefers mingling with fans rather than occupying private boxes, and his cultural references, such as Manchester music, speak of a politics anchored in place and social class.
His political trajectory has been long: adviser to Tony Blair, MP since 2001, minister under Gordon Brown, and twice a failed Labour leadership candidate. His national profile rose during the Covid pandemic, when he clashed with then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson over support for the North of England, an episode that earned him the nickname “King of the North.”
‘Manchesterism’: a local model with national ambition
As mayor, Burnham has developed a critique of the British state: it is overly centralized, too dependent on London, and governed by fiscally constrained and administratively fragile institutions. According to his diagnosis, government departments set targets and control budgets, but lack the capacity to drive meaningful change.
“His main achievement, a bus-franchise system, is characterized by private operators under public control, with the profits directed toward subsidizing essential routes”
His alternative, ‘Manchesterism’, rests on four elements: territory-focused politics, public control of services, investment facilitated by the state, and a critique of neoliberalism. His flagship achievement, the Bee Network bus-franchise system, exemplifies this model: private operators under public control, with the profits used to subsidize essential routes. Burnham sees it as a blueprint applicable to basic services.
A fragmented political landscape
Labour’s results in the May 2026 local elections were dire. The party lost ground to Reform and the Greens across the country. This fragmentation signals a deeper collapse of the old political order. In the 2024 general elections, Labour and Conservative together captured only 59% of the vote, their joint lowest share in more than a century. The two parties that dominated British politics for decades now command ever-decreasing loyalties, pressed by rising forces on the left — the Greens — and on the right — Reform.
“The Burnham candidacy partly responds to that fragmentation and to the growing threat of Reform’s victory”
Reform has grown by drawing in voters who feel economically insecure, culturally displaced and politically unheard. The Greens have advanced among younger, urban, and socially liberal voters. Burnham’s candidacy responds in part to that fragmentation and to the growing threat of Reform’s victory in the next general elections, scheduled, at the latest, for summer 2029.
The Starmer government is widely seen as directionless. Its cautious, centralized leadership has opened space for internal factions: the party’s right, the moderate left, and the traditional left.
A hypothetical More in Common poll suggests that replacing Starmer with Burnham would move Labour from a seven-point deficit against Reform to a three-point lead: a ten-point swing.
Brexit and debt markets
Brexit has re-emerged as a central dividing line in the leadership contest. Wes Streeting, a former health secretary and likely Burnham rival, has said the United Kingdom should “one day return to the European Union,” aligning with Labour supporters. Burnham maintains that now is not the moment to reopen the referendum.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 53% of Britons want to rejoin the EU, including 83% of Labour voters and 23% of those who voted to leave in 2016. But Makerfield voted around 65% in favour of Brexit, and Reform is already using against Burnham his past comments about wanting the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU “in his lifetime”.
The Brexit issue crystallizes the broader dilemma for Labour: leaning on the pro-European instincts of its membership or rebuilding trust in the cities that voted to leave the EU and which the party has been losing.
The most controversial recent remark by Burnham was his assertion that the United Kingdom is “mortgaged to debt markets.” He later clarified that he was referring to the loss of state control over essential services, not sovereign debt. But the episode underscores the fiscal constraints any new prime minister would face.
Growth in the UK since 2008 has been very weak. Productivity has stagnated. Debt runs around 100% of GDP. Taxes are at historic highs. Financing costs have risen markedly. According to the Policy Landscape 2025 report, the country faces a string of complex problems: low productivity, planning blockages, trade frictions, tensions in the labour market, deteriorating public services and underfunded health and social care systems.
“Investors associate Burnham with a more interventionist economic approach, and, therefore, with higher fiscal risk”
When Burnham announced his candidacy in Makerfield, UK bond yields edged up slightly. Investors associate him with a more interventionist economic approach and, therefore, with higher fiscal risk. Burnham now says he will respect the UK’s fiscal rules, but the shadow of Liz Truss’s brief tenure remains very present. Any hint of fiscal adventurism could trigger market instability.
Burnham against Blair: two diagnoses of Britain’s malaise
Burnham’s rise has drawn criticism from former prime minister Tony Blair, who weighed in with a 6,000-word essay warning that the Labour Party is “playing with fire.” Blair argues that the leadership contest has a “retro” feel of the 20th century and that neither Burnham nor Streeting offer the strategic clarity needed in a world subject to geopolitical and technological changes.
The central accusation Blair makes is that the Labour Party lacks a coherent plan and risks being “carved up by the left and by the right” by rising parties. His prescription is to return to a radical-centrist center focused on growth, business confidence and technological transformation.
Burnham rejects that diagnosis. He argues that Blairism’s faith in markets contributed to the inequality and political disillusionment of today. “People do not believe the center has delivered for them,” he said, noting Blair’s analysis lacks the word “inequality.”
A turning point?
Burnham offers Labour something it currently lacks: a national story, a sense of territorial belonging, and a record of governance. But the constraints are enormous. If he becomes Labour leader, he will have to reconcile his ambitions with the hard realities of government.
Makerfield will reveal whether Burnham’s territory-driven, authenticity-focused, and public-control politics can withstand national pressures. More broadly, it will show whether the Labour Party can reconnect with the places that once formed its backbone.
Whatever the outcome, the by-election forces Labour — and the country — to confront a tougher question: what kind of policy can rebuild trust and drive renewal after years of division, confusion, and decline.
