Manchester mayor Andy Burnham’s campaign video for Makerfield’s by-election features a pair of songs by local bands, reinterpreted for the moment: Some Might Say, by Oasis, conjuring up the era of deindustrial decline, and One Day Like This, by Elbow, offering a measured, guarded hope. Together, these anthems frame Burnham’s argument in a contest that is about more than winning a seat in Parliament; it is about presenting himself as the country’s potential next prime minister: the nation is torn between disillusionment and the aspiration for something better, and his program—grounded in place, public stewardship and civic renewal—could bridge that rift.
The Makerfield by-election on June 18, in the north‑west of England, is formally a contest for one parliamentary seat. In practice, it has become a gauge of a much larger question: whether Labour can halt its slide in the polls, repair its fractured electoral coalition, and find a leader capable of countering the rise of Reform UK’s right‑wing populism.
“Burnham is the only figure many MPs believe could rebuild the coalition the Labour Party needs”
Burnham is the one Labour figure with broad, cross‑party appeal, and the sole person many MPs think could reconstruct the coalition Labour requires to win the next election. His choice to contest Makerfield marks the first move toward a bid for the Labour leadership. It has transformed a routine by‑election, involving around 75,000 voters, into the closest the United Kingdom has approached to a US‑style primary.
In May, Reform took around half of the vote across Makerfield’s wards, compared with Labour’s 23%. Polls put Labour at barely a 5% chance of retaining the seat at the next general election. A Burnham victory would thus indicate that Labour can still win in places it has been losing. Conversely, a Reform triumph would be crushing, signaling that Labour’s troubles extend beyond Keir Starmer’s leadership.
“Makerfield is a final line of defence against Nigel Farage’s radical-right politics, fuelled by anti-immigration sentiment”
Makerfield is understood as an existential moment for Britain’s social democracy: a last stand against Nigel Farage’s radical-right politics, fueled by anti‑immigration sentiment, the capitalism of tech oligarchs and Trump‑style political opportunism. It also appears to be a rare chance for the United Kingdom to begin closing the wound opened by the Brexit referendum.
An unusually popular politician
According to YouGov’s May 2026 favourability tracker, Burnham is the only senior Labour figure with a positive net rating among the public (+4), and the only figure viewed favourably by a majority of 2024 Labour voters (57%). Even among Liberal Democrat and Green voters, he maintains strong positive ratings (+24 and +18, respectively).
His northern, working‑class background—he is the son of a telephone engineer and a receptionist—coupled with longstanding ties to Makerfield, reinforces an aura of authenticity. He is a lifelong Everton supporter, enjoys mixing with supporters rather than retreating to private boxes, and his cultural references, such as Manchester’s music scene, underscore a politics rooted in place and class.
His political journey has been lengthy: adviser to Tony Blair, MP since 2001, minister under Gordon Brown, and twice an unsuccessful Labour leadership candidate. His national profile rose during the covid pandemic, when he clashed with then‑prime minister Boris Johnson over northern England’s needs, an episode that earned him the nickname “King of the North”.
‘Manchesterism’: a local model with national ambitions
As mayor, Burnham has developed a critique of the British state: it is too centralized, too dependent on London, and run by institutions that are financially constrained and administratively fragile. In his view, government departments set targets and control budgets but lacks the capacity to drive meaningful change.
“His flagship achievement, the Bee Network bus franchising system, exemplifies this model: private operators under public control, with profits used to subsidise essential routes”
His alternative vision, ‘Manchesterism’, rests on four pillars: place‑first politics, public control of services, state‑enabled investment and a critique of neoliberalism. His flagship achievement, the Bee Network bus franchising system, embodies this approach: private operators operating under public stewardship, with profits redirected to subsidise vital routes. Burnham views it as a template for utilities.
A political landscape breaking apart
Labour’s results in the May 2026 local elections were grim. The party ceded ground to Reform and the Greens across the country.
This fragmentation signals a deeper collapse of the old political order. In the 2024 general election, Labour and the Conservatives together captured only 59% of the vote, their smallest combined share in more than a century. The two long‑dominant parties now command shrinking loyalty, squeezed by insurgent left‑leaning Greens and right‑leaning Reform.
“Burnham’s candidacy is partly a response to that fragmentation and to the growing threat of a Reform victory”
Reform has surged by winning over voters who feel economically insecure, culturally displaced and politically ignored. Greens have gained traction among younger, urban, socially liberal voters. Burnham’s candidacy is partly a response to that fragmentation and to the mounting threat of Reform’s victory in the next general election, due by summer 2029 at the latest.
Starmer’s Government is widely perceived as directionless. His cautious, centralized leadership has created room for internal factions: the party’s right, the soft left and the traditional left.
A hypothetical More in Common poll suggests that replacing Starmer with Burnham could move Labour from a seven‑point deficit to Reform to a three‑point lead: a ten‑point swing.
Brexit and bond markets
Brexit has re-emerged as a central dividing line in the leadership contest. Wes Streeting, a former health minister and Burnham’s likely rival, has suggested the United Kingdom should “one day be back in the European Union”, aligning himself with Labour’s pro‑EU faction. Burnham argues that now is not the moment to replay the referendum.
Recent YouGov polling shows 53% of British voters want to rejoin the EU, including 83% of Labour voters and 23% of those who voted to leave in 2016. Yet Makerfield backed Brexit by around 65%, and Reform is already weaponising Burnham’s past remarks about wanting the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU “in my lifetime” against him.
The Brexit question crystallises Labour’s broader dilemma: lean into the pro‑European instincts of its membership or rebuild trust in the towns that voted to leave and that the party has been losing.
Burnham’s most controversial recent intervention was his claim that the United Kingdom is “in hock to the bond markets.” He later clarified that he was referring to the state’s loss of control over essential services, not sovereign debt. But the episode underscores the fiscal constraints facing any new prime minister.
The United Kingdom’s growth since 2008 has been sluggish. Productivity has stagnated. Debt stands near 100% of GDP. Taxes are at historic highs. Borrowing costs have risen sharply. The Policy Landscape 2025 report outlines a set of complex problems: weak productivity, planning bottlenecks, trade frictions, labour‑market tensions, deteriorating public services and underfunded health and social care systems.
“Investors associate him with a more interventionist economic approach and, therefore, with greater fiscal risk”
When Burnham announced his candidacy in Makerfield, gilt yields rose modestly. Investors correlate him with a more interventionist economic stance, and thus with higher fiscal risk. He now says he will adhere to the UK’s fiscal rules, but the shadow of Liz Truss’s brief premiership remains a constant reminder. Any hint of fiscal adventurism can trigger market instability.
Burnham against Blair: two diagnoses of Britain’s malaise
Burnham’s ascent has drawn fire from former prime minister Tony Blair, who weighed in with a 6,000‑word essay warning that Labour is “playing with fire.” Blair argues that this leadership contest has a “retro 20th‑century feel” and that neither Burnham nor Streeting offers the strategic clarity required in a world of geopolitical and technological shifts.
Blair’s central charge is that Labour lacks a coherent plan and risks being cut to the left and right by insurgent parties. His prescription is a return to a “radical centre” focused on growth, business confidence and technological transformation.
Burnham rejects that diagnosis. He contends that Blairism’s faith in markets helped produce today’s inequality and political disillusionment. “People don’t feel the centre has delivered for them,” he said, pointing to the absence of the term “inequality” in Blair’s analysis.
A turning point?
Burnham offers Labour something it currently lacks: a narrative about the country, a sense of territorial belonging and a record of delivery. Yet the constraints are formidable. If he becomes Labour leader, he will need to reconcile his ambitions with the hard realities of governing.
Makerfield will reveal whether Burnham’s politics of place, authenticity and public control can withstand national pressures. More broadly, it will show whether Labour can reconnect with the communities that once formed its backbone.
Whatever the result, the by‑election compels Labour—and the country—to confront a tougher question: what kind of politics can rebuild trust and drive renewal after years of division, confusion and decline.
