The CES report on immigration is surprisingly going largely unnoticed. Despite the quality of its work, the low public profile of this important institution in recent years is common, but the report’s content deserves, at the very least, a different treatment. Its analysis and diagnosis of what is likely, alongside housing, the main concern of Spanish society, is not only technically rigorous but is backed by CEOE, CCOO, and UGT, among others, at a moment when immigration has become the main battleground in Spanish, European, and global politics. A report filled with truths that rigorously describes the reality of immigration and not what anti-politics, polarization, and populism seek to make us believe.
How much does immigration contribute to GDP growth in Spain?
The CES confirms the fundamental role of immigration for the continuity and sustainability of long-term economic growth and employment. It notes that the Bank of Spain has estimated this contribution to Spain’s GDP growth rate between 2019 and 2024 at 80%, explained by the impact of the rise in the working-age population and the employment rate of foreigners. The Bank of Spain has also analyzed immigration’s contribution to GDP per capita growth over the last two decades, using both nationality—excluding naturalized foreigners—and country of birth as criteria, concluding with an impact around 12% in the first case and 20% in the second.
“The 2.9% growth of GDP per capita recorded between 2022 and 2024 is explained by more than half the rise in the employment rate”
More specifically, and with respect to the post-pandemic period, the 2.9% growth in GDP per capita between 2022 and 2024 is explained by more than half the rise in the employment rate and a quarter by the growth in productivity per hour worked, which contributes more than in previous periods. Regarding the contribution of the foreign population to GDP per capita growth after the pandemic (0.4 percentage points, pp, according to nationality, and 0.7 pp according to country of birth), it is explained by more than 70% by the increase in the employment rate, followed by the demographic factor and the factor of working hours. Furthermore, the evolution of productivity has a negative contribution, in line with other expansion periods, as a reflection of the lower aggregate productivity of the foreign-born population who tend to occupy jobs in sectors where productivity is below the average.
Is immigration necessary to sustain the pension system?
The available evidence, as the CES notes, is that as migrant workers enter the labor market, natives shift toward new occupations that require more skilled abilities or more complex tasks, and as their skills improve, this shift contributes to long-term productivity gains for the entire economy.
The CES also notes that after the pandemic there is a higher educational level among newcomers—though gaps in qualifications compared with the native population persist. It also increases their employment in higher-skilled, higher value-added activities, which, together with the assimilation process after twenty years of migratory flows that began at the start of this century, allows for a measurable improvement in the relative productivity of foreign workers compared to native workers. All of this can contribute to cyclical productivity improvement within a growth model based on intense employment of the immigrant population.
The positive effects, which span many areas as the report explains, are especially visible in the sustainability of the pension system, since the labor integration of migrants strengthens the system’s finances through higher social security contributions and an improved ratio of contributors to pensioners.
“The activity rate of foreign residents in Spain is one of the highest in the European Union (EU) and, moreover, higher than that of the native population”
The employment motive is the main driving force behind most migratory projects. Eighty percent of people who have arrived in Spain this century have joined the labor force. Major prospective analyses indicate that Spain will continue to face employment needs in the coming years, estimated at 2.4 million from 2025 to 2035. In the current context of a shrinking native active population, migrant workers will continue to play a key role in filling these jobs. In light of this contribution, integrating the migrant perspective into the analysis of Spain’s labor market becomes indispensable, with particular attention to the degree and quality of labor market integration of people of migrant origin, as well as the regulatory framework affecting companies, as keys to the proper functioning of the country’s labor market.
The activity rate of foreign residents in Spain is one of the highest in the European Union (EU) and, moreover, higher than that of the native population, unlike what happens in most neighboring European countries. One reason is the high labor market participation of women from outside the EU.
The difference between the occupation figures from the Active Population Survey (EPA) and the Social Security affiliation of foreign workers approximates the magnitude of informal employment, which in a substantial number of cases is linked to the lack of access to the labor market due to administrative irregularity.
The CES argues that, regarding public policy design, the geographic origin variable as a factor influencing inequality should be addressed in its design, since it negatively affects social cohesion. In fact, a large portion of the foreign population, especially women, perceives incomes well below the average and remains more vulnerable to poverty and social exclusion, material deprivation, and problems of access to and maintenance of housing, as well as healthcare. The risk of breaking social cohesion becomes especially serious when these situations affect the children of immigrants, who are, in most cases, already fully rights-bearing young Spaniards.
“The fiscal contribution of the immigrant is positive when they are of working age, which helps reduce the public deficit and the debt needed to finance it”
Migrant women face a confluence of disadvantages and risk of discrimination due to the double status of being a woman and a migrant, along with greater vulnerability to poverty and social exclusion, especially when heading single-parent households, as well as facing gender-based violence. These disadvantages are exacerbated in many cases by a lack of awareness of their rights, cultural barriers, absence of support networks, and irregular situations.
Migration flows also impact the economy through effects on public finances, both directly and indirectly. Several studies have analyzed this direct fiscal impact by comparing the contributions of the immigrant population to public revenues—taxes and social contributions—and the expenditures associated with their presence in terms of services and monetary transfers—primarily social benefits, health care, education, and pensions. The consideration of all these direct and indirect effects on public finances centers on the individual contribution of each immigrant throughout their life cycle, which presents a profile similar to that of native people: the fiscal contribution is positive when of working age, which helps reduce the public deficit and the debt needed to finance it and generates a future stream of savings in interest and debt, and negative after retirement.
Disinformation and hate speech: toward a new narrative
The nearly three-hundred-page, carefully crafted report closes with twenty conclusions and recommendations, among which one stands out: “toward a truthful new narrative. Attitudes and social participation” that warns about the risk of misinformation and manipulation of immigration in our country. Thus, the CES contends that in recent years immigration has progressively become a central topic of public debate. Although daily coexistence with migrants in Spain remains predominantly positive and accepted, the stigmatization of immigration by xenophobic, nativist, and exclusionary nationalist currents has increased its perception as a problem for the country. This negative view, the CES continues, does not originate in direct experience with migrants, but in contexts of misinformation that position immigration as the axis of discontent and social and political disengagement, reinforcing stereotypes and hostile attitudes toward the various migrant groups. Its most extreme manifestation is discourses that incite potentially criminal acts of hate due to their racist or xenophobic nature, responsible for four out of ten hate crimes in the country.
“Although Spain is one of the European countries where migration has grown most intensively in recent years, its political representation has hardly varied”
In this light, the fight against hate speech must not only rely on factual accuracy and data about the economic and social reality but also on the dismantling of the emotional frames that present immigration as a problem or threat, posing alternative narratives that engage citizens also from ethics and empathy. Reclaiming and proposing a rigorous vision of immigration, recognizing its intrinsic value beyond a contribution to society in quantitative terms, will foster conditions of social, political, economic, and cultural inclusion for migrants. Politically, their electoral participation is very low compared to the demographic weight they represent. At the same time, although Spain is one of the European countries where immigration has grown most intensively in recent years, its political representation has hardly varied in recent decades. This situation evidences a limited political inclusion process that does not keep pace with the demographic transformation of the country. In this sense, social, political, and cultural participation, both individually and through migrant and non-migrant organizations, contributes and will continue to contribute to creating, promoting, and disseminating narratives radically opposed to hate speech directed at migrants.
In short, a valuable piece of work by the CES that, in addition to its technical rigor, adds the value of being authored collectively by employers, unions, and the rest of the organizations represented on that Council, situating the immigration debate where it truly belongs and moving it away from the manipulative discourse it has been subjected to. Moreover, it achieves this without denying the challenges of the issue and the tasks pending in the area of social inclusion and social integration of migrants, bearing in mind that these elements, together with the prevention of racism and xenophobia, are part of the pillars of Spain’s immigration and foreigner policy.
