The decision by Marine Le Pen to run in the upcoming French presidential elections next April after her conviction marks the opening of a period in which votes cast in the ballots of some democracies can change not only their countries, but the course of Europe, the West, and the world. This period can be filled with “national priorities,” to the detriment of integration, collaboration, and a reasonable globalization. It will not be the same world with an unrestrained Donald Trump, with Le Pen in the Élysée, Vox in the Government of Spain, and Benjamin Netanyahu roaming freely, as opposed to a world in which moderation governs. We must be cautious; while nothing is decided at this stage, everything remains open. This autumn may begin to mark a turning point. In what sense?
“It will not be the same world with an unrestrained Trump, with Le Pen in the Élysée, Vox in the Government of Spain, and Benjamin Netanyahu roaming freely, than one in which moderation governs.”
In Europe, the presidential and legislative elections in France, the general elections in Spain, Italy and Finland in 2027, can push the Old Continent toward a Europe that is fragmented under the pressure of renationalizing far-right movements, which also contaminate the entire political debate. Fragmentation to which Trump contributes. Even in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu risks more than his own future. And, of course, the November elections to the US Congress could determine the fate of Trump and Trumpism.
Some things change even without elections. In the United Kingdom, all signs point to Andy Burnham succeeding Keir Starmer at the head of a Labour government that holds an absolute majority and that moves closer to Europe again, ten years after Brexit. The next prime minister —the seventh since that fateful referendum— has little time to avoid losing more ground, not against the Conservatives, but against Reform UK led by an unfettered Nigel Farage despite corruption accusations.
In Germany there are no planned general elections, but the regional ballots this autumn, especially in Saxony-Anhalt, could mark an early victory for the radical right, the AfD. In any case, the current coalition headed by Merz is trying to regain the pace of its industry, even at the expense of Europe, with the support of unions for its far-reaching reforms of the industrial and welfare state. Unlike France, Germany has a significant fiscal margin to invest in the defense industry as the new manna. Today Berlin, even more so under pressure from the radical right, favors a Europe with more competition among its member states than collaboration among them. The EU, it is estimated, cannot slow German growth, which is the great priority, Germany’s “national priority.” The others are beginning to understand it. France certainly has its own priority, in the field of innovation. Are we facing a new “German problem” or a European problem?”
“Today Berlin, especially under pressure from the radical right, is in favor of a Europe with more competition among its member states than collaboration among them.”
In France, the only sure thing is that Emmanuel Macron cannot repeat. There are three camps: the radical right of the National Rally (RN) and, fragmented, a left and a right. It would be a tragedy if in the second round of the presidential elections, in May, the radical right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from the far left, faced off. In that case, Marine Le Pen would win, returning for a fourth time to pursue her presidential ambitions despite her conviction for embezzlement. Although subsequent legislative elections could moderate the situation. Today, however, various polls point to a second round between Le Pen — with Bardella as the designated prime minister candidate — and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, which would be a drama for the left, as happened with Chirac against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002. It would be better if a left-leaning moderate such as Raphaël Glucksmann could make it through.
In Italy, Prime Minister Meloni must face elections in 2027, with a new rival on her right, i.e., at the extreme end: former General Roberto Vannacci, who shortly after the launch of his Futuro Nazionale party has overtaken Matteo Salvini’s Lega in the polls. Again, surprises may occur.
From elsewhere, attention also turns to the upcoming elections in Spain, which will be affected and affect this panorama.
The balances in the European Council will be unsettled, even more so as relations between Paris and Berlin are strained. Even if Le Pen has moderated, she proposes a drastic reduction of France’s contribution to the EU budget. Can Europe continue to be built on the basis of a multiplicity of national priorities? Who will pick up the anti-European banner of Hungarian Viktor Orbán? Will it be Slovenian Janez Janša, for the fourth time prime minister and supporter of Israel, or will others, who in turn — another consequence of these processes — may be more pro-Russian, since the radical right generally is? In Kyiv they watch with concern what may happen.
“Can Europe continue to be built on the basis of a multiplicity of national priorities?”
In the United States, faced with the Iran-war fiasco and its consequences, but with a confusing Democratic message, it seems that in the November midterm elections the Democrats will win the House of Representatives. However, polls and bets on Polymarket indicate that the Republicans may retain a majority in the Senate —which only renews a third of its seats. If the Republicans do not lose control of both chambers, it will be difficult to push through a dismantling of Trumpism, in the style of what is being pursued in Hungary after Orbán’s defeat.
The one who fancies himself emperor finds himself unbound. Trump, who has shown in the primaries that he controls the Republican Party, will try not to become a lame duck, to keep ruling by decree, even though sometimes, only sometimes, he has his “own” Supreme Court against him. He has even intervened in the FIFA World Cup so that his friend Infantino would lift the ban on Balogun, the best player of the U.S. national team, which did not prevent a defeat against Belgium. The game has already started turning dirty, and although Trump has suffered some setbacks in his plans, he still has the option of deploying ICE forces near polling stations on Tuesday, November 3, to intimidate many Latinos, as Steve Bannon urges. Especially if the dynamics change. A considerable share of Republican voters stayed home in the primaries. It is turnout that could backfire on Trumpism, which now bears the anti-communist banner against the Democratic Party, where some “socialists” have risen in districts leaning further to the left.
What happens in Israel —with elections, at the latest, by October 27— will reverberate not only in the Middle East, but among American voters who have watched their president be guided by the Israeli prime minister. Some Democratic contenders openly criticize Netanyahu. Predictably, Likud will come first, but the question, in a highly fragmented Knéset, is who will manage to govern and with what security objectives, in a country whose society has changed deeply in the last two decades.
It remains to be seen whether we are witnessing a right-wing wave or if it can be contained. These electoral months are not simply a sum of national elections, but a set of contests, also the Spanish one, that can influence one another and, one way or another, will yield a Europe and a world whose political configuration will change. It has already changed in Latin America, led largely by citizen insecurity. The big exceptions are Mexico and, with presidential elections next October, Brazil. In Milei’s Argentina there will be elections in October 2027.
“These electoral months are not merely a sum of national elections, but a set of contests that can influence one another”
There are common features across all these processes: the polarization of politics and society. They will be, in all the places noted, battles to the death. The center has disappeared with the hollowing out of the middle classes. The defense of empathy toward others is being buried. Immigration and its rejection are present in all political debates — even in South Africa. There is a very Clausewitzian “rise to the extremes,” theorized years ago by the French philosopher and anthropologist René Girard, who died in 2015 and who was one of the references for the Trumpists. With the danger, always, that it could spill over into the ballot boxes. We saw it in Washington with the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
