I appreciated the replies to my two Substack-start posts and I’m thankful as well to David Lat, who spoke with me at length about the perks and drawbacks of Substack. David runs one of the most successful legal substacks, so he truly understands how this space operates.
Here are my tentative, upfront conclusions: launching a paid Substack is probably not worth pursuing.
First, David clarified how conversion rates actually function. In essence, most substacks provide multiple tiers of access. A free tier grants entry to a portion of the material, while a paid tier unlocks the full library. The portion of free subscribers who upgrade to paid is what we call the conversion rate. Some estimates place Substack’s conversion rate around the ten percent mark. For instance, with 1,000 total subscribers, roughly 100 might be paying. David notes that the typical average is probably nearer five percent, meaning about 50 paid subscribers in that same cohort of 1,000.
Second, subscriber counts are not fixed in stone. Individuals who cross the payment threshold can still choose to cancel. If the content cadence isn’t enough, they may feel the price isn’t justified and unsubscribe. Conversely, if there is an overload of posts and the inbox becomes overwhelming, they may also leave. There is also a cyclic pattern where readers tire of a given site and seek out other subscriptions. In conversations with several Substack creators, the consensus is that subscriber figures have largely stabilized. Once saturation sets in, attracting new subscribers becomes more challenging. Additionally, older substacks enjoyed a certain first-mover advantage, which means newer entrants will face tougher odds. It’s possible we’ve already hit Substack’s peak.
Third, a substantial amount of effort goes into maintaining a high conversion rate while keeping churn low. Writers must carefully consider how much content to produce, what kind of content to deliver, when to publish, and how to craft emails that warrant opening. If any of these aspects falls short, the subscriber base can dwindle. Creators inevitably obsess over these considerations, and that emphasis can influence both the quality and quantity of material produced. Some authors may have discovered the right balance, but many have not. Some substacks will fade in relevance, and readers may not even notice.
These three factors above shape what I could reasonably expect to earn. With a $5 monthly price, reaching $1,000 per month would require around 200 paid subscribers and roughly 4,000 total subscribers. To hit $10,000 monthly, you’d be looking at about 2,000 paid subscribers and around 40,000 total subscribers. Based on my rough math, I’d expect my initial paid-subscribe rate to land toward the lower end of that spectrum. It could grow with time, but it would almost certainly plateau as I saturate the market. As one reader emailed me, how many posts can I write about Chief Justice Roberts’s political approach to judging? (Hint: another piece is on the way tomorrow.)
Honestly, a few thousand dollars each month would be a nice side income, but not enough to justify changing course. I also enjoy the current rhythm: I write when I’m in the mood, skip when I’m busy with other things, and I’m not overly concerned with how many people actually read the posts.
In any case, these remain my provisional conclusions for the moment. I’m certainly open to revisiting the topic down the line. Thanks to everyone who reached out to share their thoughts!
