For several decades, defense has occupied a strange place in Spanish politics: it is very important for the State, but apparently secondary for voters. Governments made decisions in this area believing they would not be decisive in the outcome of elections. And European policy rested under a permissive consensus: Spain was pro-European and its membership in the Union was barely debated.
The Cluster17 survey for Agenda Pública shows that Spaniards attribute a similar average importance to parties’ positions on defense and military spending and to their approaches to the European Union. On a scale from zero to ten, the first issue scores an average of 5.68, compared to 5.64 for the second.
“Spaniards attribute a similar average importance to parties’ positions on defense and military spending and to their stances on the EU”
Half of respondents assign defense an importance between six and ten, while 29.4% assign it between zero and four points. The proportions are almost identical for the European Union: 51% assign six to ten points and 30.2%, zero to four. In this sense, defense and military spending are issues that citizens consider when evaluating parties.
The War Generation
The responses from the youngest group (ages 18 to 24) are among the most interesting in this survey. They are the ones who assign the most importance to Europe and to defense, with average scores of 6.47 and 6.67, respectively, roughly one point above the overall population.
These results challenge the idea that defense only interests older generations, educated during the Cold War or more tied to traditional institutions. This generation of young people has grown up in a completely different, yet also deeply insecure, world: they have lived through Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Gaza War, and the US-China rivalry, and they also live with uncertainty about the American commitment to Europe and the return of the debate on military conscription. For some of the older, war is part of childhood memories; for the young, it is a possibility that appears daily on their phones.
One possible explanation for these valuations is the awareness that big political decisions are no longer made exclusively within national borders. Technological regulation, climate change, energy security, immigration, or war are debated in Brussels and depend increasingly on Europe’s ability to act jointly.
“For some of the older, war is part of their childhood memories; for the young, it is a possibility that appears daily on their phones”
These valuations do not follow a linear progression with age. The 65-to-74-year-old group assigns the least importance to both issues: 5.13 to Europe and 4.97 to defense. Among those over 75, the assessment of the European Union rises again to 6.05, though defense stays at 5.48.
On this question, men and women give almost identical average importance to defense: 5.66 and 5.69 points, respectively. That men and women share the same responses on increases in military spending or the concrete priorities of defense policy is a different matter.
Defense Importance Across Left and Right
The importance attributed to defense does not follow a clear left-to-right ordering. In the recall-vote data, electorates located in very different positions assign great importance to the issue.
In the sample, the highest score among the studied electorates, a 6.71, corresponds to voters of Ahora Repúblicas — the coalition formed by ERC, EH Bildu, BNG, and Ara Més for the 2024 European elections. They are followed by Podemos voters, with 5.86, and PP voters, with 5.83. Further back are Sumar voters, with 5.35; Vox with 5.04, and PSOE voters with 4.74.
The importance that Ahora Repúblicas or Podemos voters attach to defense should not be confused with a demand for higher military spending. It is possible that, at least in part of those electorates, a party’s position is decisive precisely because of its opposition to rearmament, to NATO, or to certain international interventions.
Defense interests both those who want to strengthen it and those who aim to limit it, just as immigration can mobilize supporters of stricter policies and advocates of a more open stance. In other words, an issue gaining importance does not by itself forecast the direction of preferences.
“That an issue gains importance does not by itself forecast the direction of preferences”
The case of socialist voters deserves particular attention. Their defense score of 4.74 is almost a point below the national average. The European Union receives a 5.32, also below the sample’s average. For Pedro Sánchez, this poses a strategic challenge.
The government needs to justify to a base that assigns defense less importance than the survey average that decisions will be increasingly conditioned by NATO, Washington’s pressure, and the demands of European partners. The PSOE runs the risk of presenting them as technical obligations or inevitable commitments and failing to craft its own political case around them.
The right, in principle, starts from a rhetorical advantage, as it can tie defense to order, sovereignty, patriotism, or the strength of the State. However, that should not lead it to interpret the data as an automatic license to demand more military spending. Vox voters place the issue below the national average. PP voters show more interest, but not at extraordinary levels.
There Is No Longer an Exception in Defense
Spain has long been one of the European countries with the lowest military spending as a share of GDP and with the least political conflict surrounding European integration. But the Ukraine war, uncertainty about the American commitment to Europe, and growing international instability are eroding that double exceptionalism.
Debates about Europe and defense are increasingly intertwined. It will be harder to separate the military budget from issues such as strategic autonomy, the defense industry, support for Ukraine, or the relationship with the United States.
“The right, in principle, starts from a rhetorical advantage, but that should not lead it to interpret the data as an automatic license to demand more military spending”
Cluster17 survey data show that citizens attribute a similar average importance to both issues. Spanish politics continues approaching these debates with discomfort and a certain caution. The Government avoids explaining precisely how much it is willing to spend and for what purpose. Across from it, the PP denounces Sánchez’s lack of commitment, but rarely details which other budget items it would be willing to sacrifice. On the other side, the parties to the left of the PSOE reject rearmament, though they do not always offer an alternative response to the deterioration of European security.
The defense debate can no longer be postponed and will be difficult. Its importance opens a space for political competition without guaranteeing a new consensus. Probably, the main political takeaway of the survey is that security weighs in how parties are evaluated, even though they have not yet decided how they want to talk about it.
