Foreign policy has always held a particular position in the Spanish public debate. It is present in the major decisions of any government, but traditionally has struggled to capture citizens’ attention, who determine their vote on other issues. The latest Cluster17 survey for Agenda Pública allows us to put some numbers to Spaniards’ relationship with the world.
With fieldwork conducted at the end of August, it is evident that domestic matters still weigh more. When asked how important different issues are when evaluating the parties, immigration—though with a certain international element—obtains 6.38 out of 10; public services, 6.33; housing, 6.10, and employment and wages, 6.06. Yet, immediately after there come several international issues.
Relations with the United States and the Donald Trump administration receive an average importance of 5.83. Defense and military spending reach 5.68; the European Union, 5.64, and positions on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, 5.62.
The gap relative to the domestic agenda exists, but it is not very large. Moreover, around half of those surveyed assign between six and ten points of importance to each of these matters. In the case of the United States, the percentage reaches 53.5%.
International politics can hardly be considered now a matter reserved for a minority especially interested in it. Another thing is that all Spaniards look outward in the same way.
Two Spains when asked about the country’s influence
The division appears with full force when asked directly about Spain’s position. 49% of respondents believe the country’s international influence has worsened in recent years. Against them, 40% think it has improved and 9% believe it has stayed roughly the same. The overall result points to a negative balance, though it hides a huge fracture.
“International policy can hardly be considered a matter reserved for a minority particularly interested in it”
Among those who voted for the PP in 2023, 93.9% believe Spain has lost influence. Among Vox voters, the figure rises to 94.8%. The picture is practically the inverse among the electorates that supported the current Government: 77.7% of Socialist voters consider that influence has improved and among Sumār voters the figure reaches 85.3%.
The differences are too large to treat this question solely as a measure of foreign policy. The answer seems to be shaped by each voter’s assessment of the Government. Measuring “international influence” requires the citizen to make an abstract appraisal of very different issues: Spain’s weight in Brussels, its bilateral relations, its diplomatic presence, or its stance on major crises. It is reasonable that political preferences help organize that information.
The difference also appears, albeit to a much lesser extent, by age. 61.1% of Spaniards aged 25 to 34 believe influence has worsened and only 27.5% think it has improved. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, the balance is also negative: 52.1% versus 31.5%.
This latter figure is especially interesting when compared with the weight that younger people give to international issues. They are critical of the evolution of Spain’s influence and, at the same time, are among those who assign the greatest importance to a large part of the foreign agenda.
Younger people look outward more
Those aged 18 to 24 are the group that assigns the greatest importance to defense: 6.67 out of ten; they are, by a long shot, the cohort that values it most. They also rate the European Union and relations with the United States at 6.47. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza receive 5.94.
“They are critical of the evolution of Spain’s influence and, at the same time, they are among those who place the most importance on much of the foreign agenda”
There is no linear relationship between age and interest in these issues. In fact, the 65 to 74-year-old group shows some of the lowest scores: 4.97 in defense, 5.13 in the European Union and 5.15 in both wars and the relationship with Washington. Among those over 75, several of these ratings rise again.
Therefore, youth is not exclusively focused on issues like housing, wages or climate change. These concerns can coexist with a substantial attention to what happens outside Spain. For those who are twenty today, the Ukraine war, Gaza, Trump’s return, or the debate over European rearmament are part of the political context in which they came of age.
Is this a characteristic that will accompany this generation in the coming years? Or is it more a consequence of the current international moment? For now, there is no clear answer. What we do know is that interest in foreign policy does not necessarily rise with age.
“These concerns can coexist with a considerable attention to what happens outside of Spain”
On gender, differences between men and women are small. They assign defense an average importance of 5.66 and 5.69 respectively. In the European Union the difference is thirteen hundredths; in the wars, seventeen, and in the United States, eighteen. At a time when the gender gap appears clearly in variables such as electoral behavior, that fracture hardly reappears when we ask how much international matters matter. Men and women may have different positions on them, but they give them very similar weight.
Foreign policy does not neatly align with left and right either
Cross-tabulations by voting memory paint another picture, difficult to reduce to blocs. Among the main electorates analyzed, those who voted for Sumar in 2023 assign the greatest importance to relations with the United States: 7.12 out of ten. They are also the ones who score the positions on the Ukraine and Gaza wars the most, at 6.44. In defense they reach 5.91.
Voters for the PP, meanwhile, grant 5.84 to defense and 5.66 to Europe. Among those who supported Vox, the four issues range from 4.90 on the wars to 5.36 on the European Union. The Socialists assign 5.62 to the relationship with the United States, 5.45 to the wars, 5.08 to Europe and 4.73 to defense.
The importance of an issue does not indicate what position a voter adopts on it. Someone may assign a lot of importance to defense because they want to increase military capabilities or because they want to limit spending. A similar relationship can occur with Trump, Gaza or Ukraine.
“The importance of an issue does not indicate what position a voter takes on it”
Precisely for that reason the data are interesting. The foreign agenda traverses ideological spaces less neatly than other debates. Sumar records especially high scores on international issues that can mobilize its electorate from positions very different from those of the PP. Vox, despite building part of its discourse around national sovereignty and international relations, does not show the highest scores in these questions. Foreign policy matters, but it does not belong electorally to a single bloc.
A country more attuned to the world and less agreement about its place in it
The survey’s picture has two sides. The first is relatively clear: Europe, defense, wars or the United States count when Spaniards evaluate their parties. Slightly more so among the young and with few differences between men and women.
“Foreign policy matters, but it does not belong electorally to a single bloc”
The second part is somewhat more complex, as that interest does not produce a common diagnosis about Spain. When the question stops being how much the world matters and becomes what place our country occupies in it, the answers align much more with the divisions of domestic politics.
It can be interpreted, therefore, that foreign policy is entering Spanish political competition at the same time that it loses part of its capacity to generate shared consensus. Citizens look more outward, but continue to interpret much of what they find from within.
The pan-European polling firm Cluster17 has established itself as one of Spain’s most precise. Its 2023 general election poll was the second most accurate in votes and the third in seats, according to Electomanía. In 2024, with the poll published in , it achieved the most precise estimate of the Catalan elections and, also in partnership with this outlet, the third most accurate in the global ranking of seats and votes in the European elections.
For a sample of this size, the conventional 95% precision margin sets the maximum at ±2.4 percentage points.
Natalie Foster
I’m a political writer focused on making complex issues clear, accessible, and worth engaging with. From local dynamics to national debates, I aim to connect facts with context so readers can form their own informed views. I believe strong journalism should challenge, question, and open space for thoughtful discussion rather than amplify noise.