For many external observers, the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, appears to be a model leader. He has guided the country toward economic recovery, driven a digital transformation, launched a major upgrade of defence capabilities, strengthened diplomatic alliances and improved the country’s standing in Europe to the point where his finance minister now chairs the Eurogroup, the very body that once subjected Athens to years of criticism and fiscal pressure.
However, inside Greece, many see a very different image of this 58-year-old centre-right politician. They believe that the growth recorded during his seven years in office has benefited only a small segment of society and that the foundations for a sustainable recovery — one that would finally banish the ghosts of the 2009-2018 depression — are not being laid.
Another factor that tarnishes Mitsotakis’s domestic image is the steady stream of scandals that suggest his government has little respect for the rule of law and even less willingness to be held to account when it comes to structural faults, corruption or abuse of power.
“Mitsotakis, who won comfortable majorities in the 2019 and 2023 elections, now seems unlikely to win a third consecutive term”
While doubts about the quality of Greece’s economic recovery have fed disillusionment, the scandals have fractured trust. Mitsotakis, who won comfortable majorities in the 2019 and 2023 elections, now seems unlikely to win a third consecutive term, which would be a record. Even within his own party, New Democracy (ND), doubts are emerging about whether he remains the most suitable person to lead the conservatives —and the country—.
Uneven Recovery
With the exception of the pandemic year, the Greek economy has grown every year since 2017 and that growth remained solid in 2024, with real GDP rising by around 2.3%, well above the EU average. The country has clearly moved past the crisis years, during which it lost a quarter of its output, but it is important to stress that the recovery remains uneven.
The real estate sector —driven by foreign demand and the golden visa programs— continues to dominate investment, while capital formation in knowledge- and technology-intensive sectors lags. Labor productivity remains below the EU average, underscoring the structural nature of the gap.
Export results have improved, but Greece still records a substantial current account deficit. Unemployment has fallen dramatically from its crisis peak of almost 28% to below 10%, one of the most pronounced shifts in Europe’s labor market. Yet, Greece still records one of the lowest employment rates in the euro area. Skills mismatches, limited mobility and wage structures that discourage participation weigh down labor-market performance.
“Those not part of booming sectors such as tourism, real estate and information technology feel left out of the recovery”
For many households, the recovery still feels out of reach. Low wages and rising cost of living — amplified by an inflated real estate market with cash-rich foreign buyers — have left those not in booming sectors feeling excluded from the recovery. The acute uncertainty of the crisis years may have faded, but economic security remains fragile for a large portion of the population.
Institutional Erosion
Beyond the economic indicators, the recovery has been uneven in an even more damaging way: growth has not been accompanied by stronger governance. If anything, Greece’s institutional resilience appears weaker than during the crisis itself. Civil society groups and international organizations continue to flag serious concerns about the rule of law, especially in the judicial system, media freedom and accountability mechanisms.
“Confidence in fundamental institutions—the courts, political parties, Parliament—has fallen to some of the lowest levels in the EU”
The government has repeatedly faced accusations of obstructing full parliamentary or judicial scrutiny of major cases, including the country’s deadliest railway accident, the Predator spyware affair and the agricultural-subsidy fraud scandal. In an environment where transparency seems compromised and checks and balances appear fragile, public trust has eroded. Confidence in the fundamental institutions —the courts, political parties, Parliament— has fallen to some of the lowest levels in the EU, reinforcing the sense that democratic guarantees are weakening even as the economy grows.
The three major scandals to emerge during the centre-right’s rule remain hot topics. The 2023 railway crash trial, in which 57 people died, recently began amid intense controversy. Families of the victims, many of them young, have repeatedly accused authorities of cover-ups and interference in the judicial process.
The spyware scandal, in which dozens of politicians, journalists, military officers and businesspeople were spied upon, has also regained prominence. In February, an Athens court found guilty Tal Dilian —the Israeli ex-soldier who founded Intellexa, the consortium behind the Predator spyware program— and three associates for illegally accessing personal data through the 2020-2021 wiretapping operation.
Last month, however, Dilian issued a statement to Greek media insisting that his company “only provides the spyware program to governments and law-enforcement agencies.” His assertion directly contradicts the government’s long-standing defence that Predator was operated by private actors and not by the National Intelligence Service (EYP), as opposition parties, media and several victims have argued.
“More than twenty current and former New Democracy MPs —including ministers— have been implicated in a systematic fraud scheme”
The prime minister’s position has become even more delicate due to the latest developments surrounding the alleged fraudulent disbursement of EU agricultural subsidies. After presenting an initial dossier last year, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) has now brought two more. More than twenty current and former New Democracy MPs —including ministers— have been implicated in the apparent systematic fraud at the Greek subsidy agency OPEKEPE, which allowed farmers and intermediaries to obtain hundreds of millions of euros to which they were not entitled.
The investigation included legally obtained wiretaps of the suspects, and the material leaked to the media paints a picture of politicians and advisers regularly pressuring OPEKEPE to supervise, speed up or revise subsidy files, sometimes with explicit references to political costs. This is especially damaging for Mitsotakis, who has presented himself as a European-style reformer.
The prime minister’s defence, in both the subsidies case and the railway accident, has consisted of blaming structural deficiencies Greece has endured for decades. Opposition parties argue that this is no longer tenable, especially given that Mitsotakis has been in power for seven years and that New Democracy has governed for roughly twenty-five years since the fall of the Junta in 1974.
What Next?
The PASOK, the socialist party that has long been the main rival of New Democracy, argues that the only solution is for Mitsotakis to call early elections. It is unlikely to do so. Instead, it will wait for its government to withstand the pressure from these scandals and see out its four-year term, before next summer.
“The erosion of trust has pushed Mitsotakis down a path that does not lead to a clear parliamentary majority”
New Democracy still leads PASOK by a wide margin in the polls. One of the latest indicated that ND is headed for more than 31% of the vote, while PASOK sits below 14%. However, the erosion of trust has pushed Mitsotakis down a path that does not lead to a clear parliamentary majority. ND would need several more percentage points to govern alone. It now seems more likely that the conservatives will lead a coalition government, possibly with PASOK as a junior partner.
Speculation is mounting about whether ND might consider replacing Mitsotakis, or whether a coalition partner might demand someone else as prime minister. While such an outcome is far from certain, it would likely spell the end of Mitsotakis’s political career. If Greek opposition parties had not been so weak, perhaps he would not have endured for so long, given the gravity of the scandals that have dogged his administration.
