The AMLAT Radar 2026 survey, backed by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, records a negative assessment of Trump’s policies in nine of the ten countries studied. Yet his allies win elections in societies worried about insecurity and poverty. The forthcoming Brazilian presidential elections could tilt the regional balance even further.
In Colombia, negative opinions about the impact of Donald Trump’s policies outnumber the positive ones by 34 points at the end of 2025. Seven months later, Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidency. During the campaign he had expressed admiration for the American president, who reciprocated with his support. The gap between the two outcomes helps illuminate the Latin American moment: rejection of the U.S. president coexists with the election of leaders who want closer ties to him.
The AMLAT Radar 2026 survey, with fieldwork by Latinobarómetro, gathers 12,000 interviews across ten Latin American countries, conducted between October 3 and November 18, 2025. Across the entire sample, negative opinions about the global impact of Trump’s policies outpace positive ones by 28 points. The balance is unfavorable in nine countries; Venezuela is almost evenly split, with a single positive point.
The U.S. president also heads the responses to the question about the international leader who inspires the least confidence: named by 25.3%, compared with 12.3% pointing to Vladimir Putin.
“The rejection of the U.S. president coexists with the election of leaders who want to move closer to him”
The greatest gap appears in a neighboring country: Mexico, where the balance on Trump policies falls to −65 points. Proximity to the United States exposes the country directly to Washington’s trade and migration pressures. Argentina and Chile, in turn, show less adverse balances, at −13 and −14 points, though not favorable either. The links between Javier Milei and José Antonio Kast with Trump therefore have a reach that these public preferences do not reproduce.
The reasons for the vote are domestic
The project authors point out, in conversation with Agenda Pública, the differing importance of international issues and domestic urgencies when voting. Poverty appears among the main regional challenges for 67% of respondents; drug trafficking and organized crime, for 65%. Worries about being relegated to the United States’ “backyard” receive 25%. The responses suggest a hierarchy that may favor candidates with promises of order and economic improvement, despite their external alliances.
“The responses suggest a hierarchy that may favor candidates with promises of order and economic improvement, despite their external alliances”
A este respecto, el ejemplo chileno es particularmente claro. El 70% sitúa el control de la migración entre las prioridades de su política exterior, frente al 31% regional. Moving closer to the United States receives only 14% among Chileans. The president, José Antonio Kast, won with a security and immigration-focused campaign and has just brought Chile into the Americas Shield, the coalition promoted by Trump against organized crime. Thus one can see how an internal demand for security can facilitate external rapprochement that, asked separately, has much less priority.
For a voter worried about insecurity or poverty, a candidate’s affinity with Trump may weigh less than their promises to solve those problems. That difference in priorities favors the Trump-aligned allies, who can gain support without having to persuade voters of Trump’s virtues.
China gains appeal; Europe loses references
Promoting trade tops the priorities, with 45%, followed by defending national sovereignty, with 40%. Deepening the connection with the United States remains last among the ten options, at 16%. Europe obtains 27% and China, 18%. The interest in trading and preserving decision-making capacity far exceeds the desire to tighten relations with a specific power.
China, moreover, gains appeal as a development model: it is mentioned by 36.1%, ahead of the United States at 31.5%. Compared with the 2022 edition, the report records a seven-point rise for China and a thirteen-point fall for the United States. Juan Gabriel Tokatlian and Carlos Luján, two of the authors of the report Navegar la incertidumbre: miradas latinoamericanas sobre Europa y el mundo, link this assessment to China’s image as a technological and educational benchmark.
“The interest in trading and preserving decision-making capacity far outweighs the desire to strengthen relations with a single power”
Europe does not automatically reflect Washington’s erosion either. Although it retains recognition in human rights and environmental protection, it loses attractiveness as a partner compared to the first edition. The authors warn of the difficulty of sustaining that position if Europeans stop defending their own model. In their cooperation proposals, concrete areas appear, such as the fight against organized crime and the digital relationship. These are areas where European dialogue could respond to concerns that today other leaders capitalize on.
Brazil may tilt the balance
The Brazilian elections on October 4, with a possible second round on the 25th, could substantially alter the regional balance. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Flávio Bolsonaro in a tight contest. The continuity of Lula would maintain a significant counterweight to the advance of governments aligned with Washington.
A Bolsonaro victory would have concrete consequences: the candidate has already announced that he would incorporate Brazil into the Americas Shield. Security also serves here to justify a foreign-policy decision. In the poll, Brazil records a balance of −27 points on the impact of Trump’s policies, though it is the country where the largest share of respondents prioritizes deepening the relationship with the U.S.: 28%. These data push one to believe that there can be rejection of some policies alongside an interest in preserving or strengthening the bilateral link with the U.S.
The balance could tilt definitively in a continent central to Europe. If the victories of Kast, Keiko Fujimori, and De la Espriella are joined by Flávio Bolsonaro, the Latin American pendulum will swing to the right with enormous force. And, above all, with a great degree of coordination: Javier Milei sits in the Casa Rosada and Nayib Bukele continues to govern in El Salvador. Additionally, Delcy Rodríguez has shown that she has no problem collaborating with Washington.
For the forces seeking to curb the Trump-aligned right, AMLAT Radar shows that its unpopularity offers only a limited advantage, because opponents have found support in the demands for security and economic improvement. Those victories give new governments room to approach Washington, but they are not a social endorsement of all demands that come from there.
