Finally, the mystery was resolved. We will have early general elections and they will be held on November 29, as had been evident since last Friday when the majority of Congress toppled the two decrees the Government had brought to the chamber in response to the situation created by the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal. The call called by Maricarmen by the head of the central government, who is the only one with the power to dissolve the Cortes, and who intends to stretch the juncture to frame the elections in a logic favorable to his interests.
The race starts now
What has been seen up to now serves as a doorway, but it does not forecast what may happen in the fifty-five days remaining until 29N. The starting position drawn by the polls is a stable scenario, with the PP in the lead, though in a far from comfortable position. Its result may end up lower than in 2023, with all that entails. Vox has managed, throughout the legislature, to seize a sizable portion of the popular vote. According to the latest data, we would be talking about one million votes. One million voters who backed Feijóo in 2023, but who this time are willing to opt for Abascal. The PP does not seem capable of reclaiming those votes that are moving to Vox with the contribution of other forces. In this sense, the votes it gains on the moderate flank of the PSOE’s electorate (about 400,000) would not offset the losses on the right. The PP’s result is sustained more by the PSOE’s weakness than by its own performance, which is far from brilliant.
“The PP does not seem capable of reclaiming those votes that are moving to Vox with the contribution of other forces”
The socialists could say the same, but a great result is not expected of them. The legislature has been a nightmare for Sánchez’s people, who reach the final stretch short of oxygen, but not dead. Socialist disaffection is substantial (more than one million and a quarter) and cannot be recovered with new arrivals, despite the lifeline provided to the PSOE by the transfer of voters from its left (about 400,000). In total, an amount insufficient to narrow a lead in the PP that stands at one million votes. That is the key. The PSOE needs a lucky break to shave that million: regain moderate voters, win over undecided voters, and mobilize abstentionists, without lifting the right-wing vote upward. It is not impossible, given that the ranks of PP and Vox have been at the peak of their mobilization since Ayuso unleashed her own fatwa against Sánchez in 2021.
Two frames
The first battle of 29N (and possibly the main one) is going to be defining what these elections are about. Framing them. Sánchez, in explaining the reasons that led him to dissolve the Cortes, has laid out his frame: left versus right, the dispossessed against the powerful, riding the wave of public outcry over housing. Feijóo, for his part, has repeated the mantra that the PP has been proclaiming since 2023: you must remove Sánchez if Spain is to be saved. It isn’t so much that whoever imposes their frame wins the election, since each speaks to a faction.
“The legislature has been a nightmare for Sánchez’s people, who reach the final stretch short of oxygen, but not dead”
The difference from what we had been observing throughout the legislature is that now it seems the PSOE side has managed to craft a frame recognizable to its own people, and beyond. The PP had mobilized its space for years, but the socialists had not managed to articulate an answer to the key question of any election: why should you vote for me? Sánchez, in his speech, has given an answer to that question. The question is whether that answer will be credible to a sufficient number of voters in his space.
The campaign, as happened in 2023, will consist of a cat-and-mouse game, with Sánchez trying to get Feijóo to reveal his governing plans (if he has them), so as to confront his project of a classic social democracy against a more than likely PP-Vox coalition government.
Free radicals: Vox
The supporting players will play, and this time they will do so wholeheartedly. At the very least Vox, which is set to occupy a prominent place in the campaign, more so than in 2023. Although the PSOE would be mistaken to make Abascal’s group the main target of its attacks. The fear of the ultras is well acknowledged and may move little vote. But Vox needs to accelerate in this campaign, because it’s not the same to be the junior partner of a strong PP as to be the missing link in a stagnant PP. The difference between the two scenarios amounts to several ministries, with their corresponding budgets, and a very different projection (here and in Europe).
“Vox needs to accelerate in this campaign, because it’s not the same to be the junior partner of a strong PP as to be the missing link in a stagnant PP”
Vox will play, and it will do so to the fullest and against the PP, which is its main source of votes, in addition to abstainers and first-time voters (especially around half a million men who will vote for the first time). In the most favorable contexts, Vox has managed to snatch up to 1.4 million votes from the PP. It is not the same for Vox to stay ten points behind the PP as to five. That is the band within which the two allies move.
… and Puigdemont
Curiously, Vox could be greatly helped by an unlikely actor. The return of the exiled former president could coincide with the electoral campaign, which would grant the right a topic that is highly favorable to them at the polls. This was already shown in the rerun of the 2019 elections, when the publication of the verdict against the leaders of the procés and the ensuing mobilizations in Barcelona (and the repetition of violent images on screens in households across Spain) led Vox to its best result, fifty-two seats.
“The return of the exiled former president could coincide with the electoral campaign, which would grant the right a topic that is highly favorable to them at the polls”
This time something similar could happen, which would confirm the alignment of interests between Junts, the PP and Vox, something that has been evident, vote after vote, in the latter half of this legislature, up to the decisive session in which the negative votes of the three forces toppled the decrees and accelerated the electoral call.
The possible return of Puigdemont will be used as a campaign weapon, both by Junts (obviously) and by the PP and Vox. Above all, by the latter.
The Left
There are supporting players who steal the scenes from the protagonists, luxury supporting actors, actors with character, and then there is the Left. The parties that make up this space have again found themselves facing the electoral call with work half done, amid musings about how to articulate themselves and who might lead a possible union of forces. In February, Yolanda Díaz announced she would not be the top of the list. Almost eight months have passed. In today’s politics, that is a lifetime. And the Left still has not defined who will lead it. In the meantime, the mess. Rufián’s proposal, Podemos’s moves, successive defeats in regional elections, and the lack of a clear program.
“In February, Yolanda Díaz announced she would not be the head of the list. Almost eight months have passed. In today’s politics, that is a lifetime”
The Left faces these elections in a terrible paradox for its own interests. The PSOE’s chances to win probably depend on the ritual sacrifice of its left. The curious thing is that the forces representing this space seem determined to throw themselves into the fire, not so much to help the Socialists, but due to a congenital inability to take advantage of the circumstances. Rationality in a situation like the current one would be to propose an agreement to form joint lists of the entire left (including PSOE) or to negotiate the inclusion of individuals on Socialist lists in those constituencies where the Left has no chance of winning a seat. However, rationality does not tend to abound in a space that seems to prefer collective suicide (in which very few voters seem willing to participate).
Consensus in the polls?
The chances of an electoral surprise hinge on a key point: the conviction that it is possible. This is what Sánchez seemed to be appealing to with his half-smile during Monday’s appearance. The socialist leader knows that the stars will align in his favor only if he can convince his voters that it is possible to win the elections. The left-wing voter tends to be stingier with their vote than the right’s. The first only goes to vote when they understand that act will serve a purpose. To lose, no one gets off the couch.
“The first only goes to vote when they understand that act will serve a purpose. To lose, no one gets off the couch”
Hence the battle for that narrative begins now. And here polls will play a role, as they did in 2023. Back then, 146 polls were published in less than two months, at a rate of almost three surveys per day. A huge outlay of money to shore up a single idea: the right’s victory was inevitable. Therefore, there was no need for the left-wing voter to leave the comfort of their sofa, since their effort would be futile.
We will see if, in this election, the demoscopic consensus of that time reappears. We will see soon. Since 2023, we have reduced the frequency of survey publication to about eight per month on average.
Under the radar
The problem with predictions is that more and more moves occur under the radar, making them very difficult, if not impossible, to capture. It’s not that our instruments have become obsolete (though perhaps), it’s that more and more voters tend to decide later, making their actions unpredictable. This happened in 2023. Before the final week of the campaign, Feijóo led the elections by a comfortable margin. In that week, however, an unforeseen movement of voters (female voters, in fact) who had shown little interest in participating occurred. That last-minute mobilization is what led to the results that allowed Sánchez to retain the Government.
“More and more voters tend to decide later, so it is not possible to forecast their actions”
Is it possible that these kinds of movements will recur? Not only is it possible. It’s evident they will occur, because we have an electorate that has learned to decide at the last moment, to wait until the last minute (indeed, until the last second) to enter the playing field. This keeps the scenario open to a degree and forces the parties to operate in a thick fog, launching probes that don’t know if they’ll be received and, if so, whether they’ll have any effect.
