Republicans briefly blocked the impeachment push through a procedural maneuver, but its comeback remains highly likely.
Today, members of the House GOP succeeded in halting the impeachment of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth by routing the matter to a committee with a 211-204 vote framed as a call for further “study.” Yet the confrontation is far from finished.
The Republicans may be able to effectively keep the impeachment mired in committee for the remainder of this Congress (which wraps up on January 3, 2027). But it is almost certain to reemerge in the next, Democrat‑controlled House. With around 260 seats expected in the new chamber, Democrats (nearly all of whom back impeachment) should have little trouble advancing a vote to impeach. At that stage, obtaining the 11 or more Republican defections necessary to reach a 2/3 conviction in the Senate will be the bigger hurdle, given that Democrats would hold roughly 54 to 56 seats in the new Senate, depending on the still unresolved results in Alaska and Mississippi). Nonetheless, Hegseth would still face a trial addressing his role in the Iran War judged unconstitutional, as well as the reported deaths of more than 200 people in the so‑called “drug boat” strikes in the Caribbean and the Pacific, among other charges.
And, while the path is steep, a conviction is not out of the question, given his low standing on Capitol Hill (and beyond) and the strength of the evidence against him. It is notable that House Republicans chose this procedural route rather than a straight vote to dismiss the impeachment, suggesting they may not have had the votes for the latter.
In earlier analyses, I laid out in greater detail why Hegseth warrants impeachment and conviction, and I cited a compelling article on the subject by prominent conservative national-security law expert Andrew McCarthy, who reaches similar conclusions.
It ain’t over till it’s over — and this one is far from that point.
