A string of new geopolitical and planetary crises dominates the news and, in doing so, deepens a pessimistic view of the state of humanity. But a look back a hundred years reveals a very different image: a picture of unprecedented human progress.
One hundred years ago life was fragile and insecure. The life expectancy was between thirty and forty years, and one in every three children died before reaching the age of five. About the 60% of the world population lived in extreme poverty, and only about a third could read or write.
Now, the global life expectancy stands at 73 years, less than 10% of the global population lives in extreme poverty, and almost 90% is literate. There has been a transformation in living standards. After centuries of stagnation, per capita income doubled in the 19th century and has since expanded sixfold between 1925 and today.
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But, what about progress measured by the possibility of living with security and having options, rather than merely subsisting?“But, what about progress measured by the possibility of living with security and having options, rather than merely subsisting? With that criterion, there is still a lot to do, since around 4,700 million people remain below what we call the “empowerment line”.
In short: global progress has been enormous, but much more is needed.
In this context, our new book A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come (Un siglo de abundancia: una historia de progreso para las generaciones futuras) presents an ambitious vision: that by 2100, the world’s poorest people could live as well as present-day Swiss people. With their high incomes, a longer life expectancy, quality education and solid social safety nets, it is possible that Switzerland is the best example of a country with “abundance”.
Setting Switzerland as a goal may seem radical, but it isn’t. To match it, world per-capita GDP would need to grow by about 2.6% per year (just a bit more than the 2.3% average recorded in the last quarter-century). In the abundance world we imagine, the world population reaches 12,000 million people (as some countries recover from extremely low fertility rates) and the global economy is 8.5 times larger than today.
The advances in education and in artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies make this goal fully viable. But progress demands more than innovation. Much of the expected growth would come from the emerging economies, which can approach the advanced economies by investing in technologies and infrastructures already existing.
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Besides strategies to improve productivity, the next economic leap depends on some basic ingredients, of which the main one is energyBesides strategies to improve productivity, the next economic leap depends on some basic ingredients, of which the main one is energy. To raise economic opportunities, we need a much larger decarbonized energy system. According to our calculations, it would be necessary to double or triple global energy generation relative to current levels and multiply by about thirty the production of clean electricity.
This can be achieved by building and deploying at scale existing technologies, while continuing to innovate. There is no doubt the task will be arduous, but there are precedents. China tenfolded its combined solar, wind and nuclear energy production in the last ten years; that pace is far more than enough to achieve a world of abundance. In the United States, two decades ago the shale barely appeared as an energy source; now it contributes more to the country’s energy production than the combined use of oil and gas. Going further back, France built an electricity system based on nuclear energy in the 1970s.
There is another important fuel, but for people: food. In the book we show that a population of 12,000 million people can consume a protein-rich diet without needing to use more land, and with increases in agricultural yields far more modest than those achieved since the 1960s.
Geology is not the bottleneck for the century of abundance either. The Earth has enough natural resources to sustain this expansion. For example, we estimate that to achieve abundance by 2100 will require 134,000 million tonnes of steel. The known sources of iron usable (the main input for steel) total 230,000 million tonnes, of which 88,000 million (two-thirds of the required amount) are economically extractable reserves. And these reserves have been growing for more than thirty years at an annual rate close to 1%, which more than compensates for the difference.
The same holds for other important materials: in none of the cases would growth rates need to exceed historic rates to make our vision a reality. And these are conservative estimates: it is highly likely that new materials and techniques will emerge during this period.
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A world of abundance will be better positioned to tackle climate change and other environmental problems because growth strengthens investment in the transition to clean energy (grids, renewable sources, batteries, etc.), in adaptation tools (air conditioning and irrigation systems) and in research and development. Always that the fruits of growth are used to accelerate the decoupling of GDP and emissions (as the majority of the world is already doing), it is possible to limit global warming to about 2°C and at the same time improve the living standards of millions of people.
In short, there are no insuperable physical barriers to universal prosperity. But we do not claim that our vision of abundance is easy to achieve. There may be limitations that are not physical, but social and political—limitations that reside in people’s minds. In particular, many residents of advanced economies (which by definition reaped the benefits of growth) no longer believe in material progress. In a recent survey, only 9% of French participants said the next generation would live better, and in no advanced economy (except Singapore) was there a result above 30%.
This underscores the need for a new narrative that rejects zero-sum thinking. Growth is the solution, not the problem. In the last century, growth delivered higher incomes and longer life expectancy, while empowering millions. Looking ahead, we cannot allow one person’s gain to come at another’s expense. Instead, we must dare to imagine a world of prosperity for all. It is within our reach, as long as economic progress remains our north star.
© Project Syndicate, 2026.
In collaboration with the “la Caixa” Foundation
