“One year after the blackout we still don’t know its causes”. Surely you have read phrases like this several times in recent days. It’s a handy phrase, but it is false. On March 20, the latest report on the blackout was published, a 470-page document prepared by ENTSO-E, the European association of electricity transmission system operators. This report, which did not say anything particularly different from the government report published in June of last year or from the one published by Red Eléctrica de España (REE) that same month, outlines seventeen factors that contributed to the root cause of the blackout: a cascading overvoltage event that could not be controlled. We are, therefore, talking about a multifactorial event, as serious analyses have been saying for ten months. This image, which you can find on page twenty-three of the cited report, is the best summary that can be made of an event of this complexity.
“If renewables had been able to perform voltage control on 28A, the blackout could almost certainly have been avoided”
The ENTSO-E report not only discusses seventeen factors that contributed to the blackout, it also offers twenty-one recommendations to improve the electrical system, some of which have already begun to be implemented. The most important of all is to enable wind and solar energies to perform dynamic voltage control, something they were not allowed to do a year ago. If these energies had been able to perform voltage control on 28A, the blackout could almost certainly have been avoided. Now that the first 4,600 MW of renewables have been enabled to control voltage, we are beginning to see how the scheduling of gas-fired plants for that purpose is decreasing. Starting next month, we will see how the adjustment services, which have been very costly these past months, return gradually to pre-blackout levels.
ENTSO-E report. Click to zoom.
Why the blackout became a battle over the narrative
If this is as clear as the reports indicate, why do we keep hearing that the cause of the blackout is not yet known or so many cross-accusations? The answer is clear, but sad at the same time: because the blackout, from day one, became a war artifact and a tool to pursue certain interests. Like in Cixin Liu’s novel The Three-Body Problem, there have also been three bodies here, in this case doctrinal, that have conditioned from day one the chaotic trajectory of the media debate.
When the blackout occurred, we knew that it would not be long before people would blame the energy transition for the event. We knew this because that is what had happened in all countries where a similar blackout has occurred in the last twenty years. Renewables were never their cause, but those who want to halt the energy transition use fear and uncertainty to try to stop what they cannot stop with arguments.
“In the first weeks after the blackout, many media outlets were full of ‘inertia-ologists’, but the various reports have shown that this narrative was false”
In Spain, however, this classic merged with a second doctrinal body specifically Spanish: the debate about closing nuclear power. Some supporters of maintaining nuclear energy in Spain attempted to use the event to force its continuation and attributed the blackout to the fact that that day three nuclear reactors were offline and to a supposed lack of inertia in the system. In the first weeks after the blackout, many media outlets were full of inertia-ologists, but the various reports have shown that this narrative was false, that there was no lack of inertia and that having more would not have avoided the blackout. Moreover, months later it became known that nuclear plants could not effectively perform dynamic voltage control. To cap it all, recently the CNMC has opened proceedings against two nuclear plants for very serious infringements apparently related to the repeated failure to meet the availability obligation or with generation reductions without authorization. Despite all this and unfazed by the facts, we continue to witness astonishing, unashamed statements that claim nuclear is essential to avoid another blackout.
Finally, a third doctrinal body has further poisoned the debate: the political one. In this era of toxic polarization and permanent cultural clash, it was too tempting not to use such an impactful event to attack the Government. In a populist outburst, the blackout was linked to the “green agenda” promoted by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition, with the government’s hand over REE’s technical operation or with government responsibility regarding the CNMC.
The actions of these three bodies on the technical debate of the blackout have led us to a public discussion that, on many occasions, we can only describe as post-truth. As if that weren’t enough, everything has become even more poisoned by the open public war between REE and some companies over the responsibilities for the blackout. The legal front looms, as insurers and many companies will want to claim the damages caused by the blackout. Presenting a narrative in the media that points to another actor instead of you can reduce lawsuits, and that is why huge communication efforts are being devoted to establishing a convenient narrative on the media front. And those who allocate more resources to these efforts have greater reach in the media. But the price of the narrative is the inability to distinguish truth from propaganda.
When I give talks on energy misinformation or fake news, I always end them with the blackout case. What has happened with this case is the sublimation of everything I usually explain: biased half-truths, blatant hoaxes, false experts in the media, use of fear to paralyze changes, paid reports, tricks to counter-program inconvenient information, “suggested” experts by companies on sets and tribunes, media offensives from the first minute to set a leading story that leaves a mark… We have witnessed a textbook case of a battle for the narrative and contempt for the truth.
Beyond all this, there are two positive conclusions. The first is that, despite the efforts and argumentative stratagems to blame renewables for what happened, two-thirds of Spaniards have not bought that narrative, according to a recent Sigma Dos poll. Those who tried to turn public opinion against renewable energy have failed. In any case, that a third of people still think so despite the repeated reports denying it isn’t good news either.
“The Iberian blackout is one of those events that will catalyze important changes in electrical systems, both Iberian and those of the rest of Europe”
The second conclusion is that today our electrical system is more robust than yesterday. Allowing renewables to control voltage is the great advance of the last year and a crucial element for a power system heavily dominated by renewables, but other improvements have also been made: generation ramp limits for generators operating at a fixed power factor have been introduced, a dozen synchronous compensators that will be operational in 2029 have been deployed, and Operating Procedure 11.1 of the general criteria for the protection of the electrical system has been amended. If the blackout was already, by itself, an unlikely event that required several coincidences of causes, today such an event would be even more unlikely.
The Iberian blackout is one of those events that will catalyze important changes in electrical systems, both Iberian and those of the rest of Europe. Its lessons will allow us to move toward more modern electrical systems based on power electronics, with stricter grid codes and with safety equal to or higher than that of traditional electrical systems. Other electrical systems, such as Australia or California, have already shown that with renewables and storage you can improve the quality of supply compared to the previous situation.
Europe has once again looked the challenge in the eye due to the situation in the Middle East, and the temptation to stand still is no longer among acceptable options. Let us learn from what failed (which we know), realize that we must make a leap in regulatory modernization, and not fear new technologies. If we do so, very likely we will never again experience a blackout like the one we lived a year ago.
