Centre-right the European People’s Party (EPP), the European political bloc that includes Spain’s Partido Popular, has steered the European Union for twenty years. The EPP has topped the polls in every European Parliament election since 1999, and every European Commission president since 2004 has emerged from the group. It has also been the largest party in the European Council during this stretch. But even as the centre-left Party of European Socialists (PES) has withered to scant representation at EU level, it has sustained a “grand coalition” with the EPP that has shared executive power. Now, a defeat for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s ballot could unravel that long-standing arrangement.
“A loss for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s election could cause that long-standing arrangement to collapse”
Even when it experienced brief periods in power in the EU’s biggest member states, the PES (of which Sánchez’s Socialist Party is a member) was not in control. The tenures of François Hollande in France and Olaf Scholz in Germany will scarcely be remembered by history. At the European level they were political pygmies, brushed off in Brussels in comparison with their predecessors.
Council math
Pedro Sánchez has stood out as the sole exception to this trend. As the PES declined, his “lone-wolf” stance within the European Council empowered him to become a passionate and uncompromising advocate for the left in a bloc dominated by the right. It marked a clear break from the conciliatory posture of the PP’s Mariano Rajoy, who held the Spanish seat before him. But Rajoy was among allies, whereas Sánchez has not been. He is currently one of only three EU leaders from the PES in the 27-member European Council, contrasted with 12 from the EPP. With leaders from other right-leaning groups, the right wing holds the majority in the Council. Four leaders are from liberal ranks, and another four are independents (who largely tilt rightward).
Sánchez hasn’t triumphed in every battle. In fact, he has lost many—not surprising given the minority position he occupies. He has also rarely found backing from the PES’s other two members, the Denmark’s right-leaning Mette Frederiksen, who has kept the PES at arm’s length, and the Malta’s largely unknown Robert Abela. Sweden’s centre-left premier Magdalena Andersson is presently attempting to dethrone centre-right Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson by forming a coalition government after securing an extremely narrow victory for the left-wing bloc in last month’s elections.
“Sánchez hasn’t won all his battles. In fact, he’s lost many of them – unsurprising given the minority position he occupies”
Although Andersson’s seat could compensate for the loss of Sánchez’s seat, it would leave the PES with only three leaders from small countries—leaders whose commitment to the European centre-left is in doubt. It would effectively, for the first time in EU history, leave the centre-left shut out of power at EU level.
Parliament coalition
The effects of a Sánchez defeat wouldn’t only be felt in the Council. They would also reverberate in the directly elected European Parliament.
There has long been a German-style “grand coalition” in the Parliament, one that has mirrored the current arrangement in Germany: the EPP governs as the majority party in the coalition, with the backing of the centre-left. More recently, the liberal ALDE/Renew Europe group of Emmanuel Macron and Rob Jetten has also been part of this enduring centrist governing coalition.
“It would effectively, for the first time in EU history, leave the centre-left locked out of power at EU level”
Brussels media have reported that there have been internal discussions within the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the PES’s parliamentary group, that if Sánchez loses, they should drop the pretense that they are in a “governing coalition” with the EPP and instead define themselves as the EU government’s opposition. Why now? Two reasons. They have long ceased to wield real power as part of this arrangement, and Sánchez’s defeat would make that impossible to ignore. But more importantly, one of the reasons they haven’t done it yet is that Sánchez has been preventing them from pulling the trigger.
S&D MEPs have grown increasingly furious as von der Leyen’s EPP has forged ad hoc alliances with the far right. The 2024 EU elections gave Parliament a right-wing majority, but the EPP pledged not to use it. While they could have governed with the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) of Giorgia Meloni alongside groups even farther to the right, Patriots for Europe (PfE) led by Marine Le Pen and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) headed by Alice Weidel, they promised not to. Yet over the last couple of years, the EPP has increasingly formed ad hoc coalitions with the far right on select pieces of legislation—often tied to migration.
S&D leader Iratxe García has reportedly wanted to sever the coalition with the EPP and assume the EU opposition role for some time. Yet she has been restrained by her ally Sánchez, who does not want his bloc to be the trigger for toppling the EU’s government. Sánchez’s stance in Council votes has also made it simpler for S&D MEPs to swallow hard and back the conservative positions issued by the Council, convinced that he has helped moderate the Council’s direction.
EU coalitions mirroring national ones
Unlike the last Spanish ballot, the PP is openly signaling a coalition with the far-right Vox party this time around. Such a setup would reflect the trajectory seen in national governments across Europe, for instance in Sweden where a centre-right together with the far right coalition narrowly fell short in last month’s elections. There are currently governing arrangements pairing the centre-right with the far right in Italy, Finland, Czechia and Slovakia—and previously in Austria and the Netherlands. At EU level, the EPP is simply following the example set by its member parties on the ground.
If the centre-left withdraws from von der Leyen’s governing coalition, at the very least it would mean that von der Leyen no longer has a centrist majority to push her proposals through the EU’s legislature. She might then have to lean permanently on the far right to pass her agenda— especially as she pursues her “simplification” deregulation package meant to unwind EU rules enacted during her prior term. This would hand Parliament, for the first time in history, a right-wing governing majority—even if formally unofficial.
“The PP this time is openly talking about a coalition with the far-right Vox party. Such an arrangement would mirror what is happening in national governments across Europe”
But this is not the full extent of the danger facing the EU’s presidency. S&D sources have indicated to Brussels media that they may even pursue a motion of censure against von der Leyen—for which they would need to partner with the far left and far right to overcome backing for the president from the centre-right and liberal MEPs. Under EU law, a successful motion of censure would compel the entire 27-member College of Commissioners to resign, triggering a months-long process in which national capitals would have to appoint commissioners while national leaders search for a replacement president to be approved by Parliament.
In short, a Sánchez defeat could unleash a period of political turmoil in Brussels not seen since the Santer Commission resigned in 1999—arriving at a moment of the EU’s most perilous geopolitical juncture to date.
