Since January 20, 2025, President Trump’s approach to international relations has made one thing very clear: we are living in exceptional times. What not long ago was a half-joking idea has now gained traction in both Canada and Europe, even prompting campaigns from prominent pressure groups. And in March, the European Commission stated that it was “honoured” by Canadians’ enthusiasm for a possible accession.
Although the European Union has not made any commitments, EU treaties do not explicitly prevent Canada from submitting its application. Moreover, accession negotiations between Canada and the EU would likely be relatively straightforward. Yet, the real question is what Canada would gain from EU membership, and the answer could be “not much”.
Yes, Canada has a legal path to EU membership
EU treaties state that any country in Europe committed to the EU’s core values can apply for membership. But European is not necessarily a geographic term. Turkey, the oldest official candidate for the EU, has only 3% of its territory in Europe. Cyprus, though geographically located in Western Asia, joined the EU in 2004. And although the European Community rejected Morocco’s candidacy in 1987, the decision did not cite geography as a reason, nor did it rule out the possible inclusion of non-European geographic countries.
The Secretariat of the European Parliament emphasizes that any country with cultural or political ties to Europe can apply for accession. In fact, the EU already includes nine overseas regions scattered across the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean, and South America. In these regions, political ties to EU member countries mean that EU trade and safeguard laws apply in full. Of course, these are not independent states but integral parts of European countries. Nevertheless, given Canada’s deep cultural and political ties to Europe, Canada could plausibly argue its eligibility to apply for membership.
Meeting the EU’s accession criteria would be challenging, but possible
Future members must meet three fundamental conditions for EU membership: a stable democracy, a free-market economy, and the ability to adopt EU laws. These requirements may seem straightforward, but they have proven difficult for many applicants in the past. Still, Canada would clear the first two hurdles with ease. In many respects, Canada’s governance standards align more closely with the EU’s ideals than those of many current members.
The third criterion, adopting the EU’s vast legal corpus, would be more complex. Accession requires harmonizing national legislation with all EU rules adopted since 1957, a process that typically takes years. Even Sweden, often cited as a democracy model, took four years to join after submitting its application. But that was in the early 1990s. Today, we live in a world where the EU opened accession talks with Ukraine less than four months after its application. Sweden had to wait 18 months to reach the same stage. In 2025, the EU could well accelerate Canada’s process.
“The enlargement requires the unanimous approval of all 27 member states. This means 27 separate rounds of ratification, each a potential obstacle”
A bigger challenge lies within the European Union itself. The enlargement requires the unanimous approval of all 27 member states. This means 27 separate rounds of ratification, each a potential obstacle. Some EU members, particularly those labeled as Trojan horses — such as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — would likely use the process to extract concessions from Brussels. Still, Canada would have a persuasive case. Its status as a net contributor to the EU budget would be attractive to leaders like Orbán, who rely heavily on EU funds to sustain their grip on power.
What would Canada gain from EU membership?
The path to membership for Canada is legally and politically open. Whether it is a path worth pursuing remains a key question.
If the expectation is to boost trade benefits, Canadians should remember that the United States and Canada are each other’s largest trading partners. The EU is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, but the volume of transatlantic trade cannot compare to cross-border trade with the U.S. And EU membership would not change this reality.
If the main motive is greater prosperity, membership offers economic benefits, even for the wealthiest economies. As a net contributor to the EU budget, Canada would be funding development in less prosperous regions of the EU. Studies have shown that this funding has supported economic and political stability in those regions. However, the pronounced imbalance in budget contributions could also fuel resentment within Canada toward the EU, and provide opportunities for far-right movements to exploit voters’ frustrations.
If the primary objective is to safeguard democracy, Canadians might take note of how the EU is handling its own democratic challenges. Support for the far right in Europe has just reached its highest level since the 1930s. For the first time, far-right parties in Europe collectively hold the largest share of public support across the continent.
This conversation is just beginning
Canada could conceivably join the EU if it chose to apply. Yet a major question remains whether there would ever be enough domestic support to pursue membership. Would, for example, joining the European Economic Area (as Norway did in 1994) be a better option? This would grant Canada full access to the EU single market in exchange for contributing to the EU budget and implementing EU rules — but without representation in EU institutions. Another possibility is a more flexible framework based on bilateral agreements, similar to the Swiss model. Under such an agreement, Canada would preserve its sovereignty. In return, Canadians would have some access to the EU single market, albeit at the cost of ongoing and often inefficient negotiations.
A recent poll suggests that between 44% and 46% of Canadians support full membership (depending on how the question is framed). This is lower than the support for the EU among current and potential members. Yet, these findings are surprising, given that the issue has only recently begun to draw attention in Canada. Perhaps even more notable is the number of undecided voters. Nearly one in four Canadians has yet to form an opinion. But timing matters. The poll was conducted in late February, before the latest round of American tariffs on Canadian imports.
“What once seemed a far-fetched idea for Canada could soon become a political priority”
If the current trend of tariffs and tariff threats from Trump continues, we could see a notable shift from undecided to support in upcoming Canadian polls. What once seemed a far-fetched idea for Canada could soon become a political priority.
‘Could Canada join the European Union?’, by Mert Kartal, was originally published on ‘Good Authority’.
