Although aspects such as international policy, corruption, or the cultural battle tend to carry significant weight in electoral campaigns, the truth is that the economy remains practically the best predictor of vote. In the Spanish case, the landscape is well known: while macroeconomic indicators show substantial growth, on an individual level citizens report a loss of purchasing power. The party that offers a program that tackles this problem effectively will aim to substantially improve its results on the upcoming November 29.
All political formations are aware that in Spain there is a wage problem, but some proposals are more striking than others. The one generating the most chatter at this early stage of the precampaign is Vox’s. The party led by Santiago Abascal, in reality, has not proposed anything particularly different from what it offered in 2025, but now a new website provides details of its economic bet, which involves raising net wages by drastically cutting the IRPF. Broadly, the reform would create a personal income tax allowance of 22,000 euros per year, a middle bracket up to 70,000 with a 15% rate, and beyond that a 25% rate. Additionally, the rate would be reduced by four percentage points for each dependent child.
According to the data the party itself provided in its 2025 economic program, its proposal would mean the State collects roughly 40,000 million euros less per year. If the proposals to cut corporate tax (10,000 million) and VAT (14,000 million) are added, the figure would reach 64,000 million euros. There is no detailed 2026 update of this estimate, and in fact other calculations put the revenue loss much higher—the Government itself estimates it at 85,000 million, but it is worth putting this figure into context.
“According to the data provided by the party in its 2025 economic program, its proposal would imply that the State collect, approximately, 40,000 million euros less per year”
With 64,000 million euros, almost eleven months of annual education expenditure (2024 data) could be financed. According to defense spending estimates for 2026, Spain will devote about 35,400 million euros to this item, so the revenue reduction from the three measures would amount to almost two years of defense expenditure. It is also equivalent to a little more than one hundred days of pension spending. In other words: it is an enormous amount of money, which would be hard to balance by simply eliminating the “political spend” that the party proposes. But the most interesting aspect is how this so-called “fiscal relief” is distributed.
Who benefits from Vox’s proposed IRPF cut?
According to INE, the most common salary in Spain was 16,520 euros gross per year in 2024. Roughly, 1,377 euros distributed across twelve monthly payments. It is a fairly low salary, but that’s another debate. Well, those who earn that salary or less and have no other income would not see any improvement in their paycheck with Vox’s IRPF reform, because in 2026 they are already exempt from this tax. It would also not be for those who earn less than 17,000 euros per year in those same circumstances, a group that in 2024 represented 23.2% of all salaried workers in Spain.
In other words, almost one in four workers—and among them, those with the lowest income—would not gain any additional benefit from this IRPF cut if they only earned that salary. Or they might even be worse off, as some of the cuts required to balance the national accounts could affect them. Attempting to reduce tax revenue without cutting spending is something that has been tested recently with clear results: Liz Truss in the United Kingdom did it and almost immediately became the first prime minister with the shortest tenure in British history (49 days).
So, who would benefit from Vox’s tax cut? Some people think of the so-called middle class. Leaving definitions aside, it is true that for example, a person earning 40,000 euros a year and with no children could gain 5,700 euros more per year (475 euros per month). But let’s look higher up.
“Almost one in four workers—and among them, those with the lowest income—would not obtain any additional benefit from this IRPF cut if they only earned that salary”
According to calculator estimates, a person earning 100,000 euros per year would see their net pay improve by 30% and would receive 1,577 euros monthly in addition to the 5,318 euros they already receive (that is more than 6,800 euros net per month in twelve payments). A similar improvement would be for those earning 70,000 euros per year: their take-home would rise by 26.1%. In Spain, people who earned 70,000 euros gross per year or more accounted for 4.18% of total salaried workers in 2024. Therefore, Vox’s economic proposal, while not reaching the poorest workers via IRPF, allows those in the top 5% with the highest salaries to gain more than a 25% extra net salary.
A calculation based on the 2024 Treasury salary data allows one to approximate how the tax saving would be distributed. According to this simulation, 2.55% of the salaried workers earning more than 79,380 euros gross annually would concentrate 21.3% of the IRPF savings calculated by the model. In other words, less than three out of every hundred workers would benefit from more than a fifth of the estimated tax cut.
Welfare chauvinism, but with a chainsaw
The radical right coexists with two incompatible economic recipes: the libertarian one of Javier Milei and the protectionist one of Donald Trump, which has a twist with welfare chauvinism. Vox, like other similar parties in other European countries, tries to balance both: while the so-called “national priority” defends that some pillars of the welfare state be maintained (restricted to certain native-born principles), it launches programs of massive tax reductions, which in turn would hinder the sustainability of public services, both for native Spaniards and for immigrants.
There is no doubt that Spain has a major challenge ahead to improve the welfare of the working class. However, Vox’s proposal mainly eases the tax burden of those who need it least, and would do so at the expense of a reduction in public support (healthcare, education, and other services) on which many families depend, especially those with lower incomes.
“Vox’s proposal mainly eases the tax burden of those who need it least, and would do so at the expense of cutting public support”
In fact, Vox’s proposal is criticized even from sectors with close economic positions. Institut Ostrom, a liberal think tank, delivers a harsh critique of the reform suggested by Santiago Abascal’s party: “Reforms are announced, new spending or tax cuts, and almost no one asks the only relevant question: how much does it cost and who pays for it? A proposal without clear accounting is not a proposal: it’s a wish,” the center writes on its Twitter account.
