Immigration at the Center of the Debate: 40% See More Problems, 30% See Benefits, 28% See a Balanced Contribution

Immigration has settled at the center of the Spanish political debate and public opinion arrives divided, though with a balance more negative than positive. 40.5% of Spaniards consider that it generates more problems than benefits, compared to 29.7% who highlight its positive contributions. Another 27.9% believes that both dimensions balance each other out.

The Cluster17 survey for Agenda Pública coincides with the Ceuta crisis, when immigration and border control occupied a large part of the political conversation. The results thus reflect the opinions expressed in a context of heightened public exposure to the phenomenon.

Two almost opposite electorates

When crossing the responses with the recall of vote there appear very pronounced differences between electorates. Among those who supported Vox in the 2023 general elections, 92.7% consider that immigration generates more problems than benefits. Among PP voters the percentage decreases, but remains widely majority: a 65.3% share that view and only 6.3% believe that benefits prevail.

On the left it happens practically the opposite. 65% of those who voted for Sumar —which ran together with Podemos in that 23J— consider that immigration provides more benefits than problems and barely a 2.9% think the opposite. Among Socialist voters, half highlight the benefits, a 37.4% indicate a balanced impact and only a 10.9% give a negative assessment.

“The 65% of those who voted for Sumar —which ran together with Podemos on that 23J— consider that immigration provides more benefits than problems”

The distance between the electorates of the parties located at the ends of the ideological spectrum reaches almost 90 points: 92.7% of Vox voters see more problems than benefits in immigration, compared with only 2.9% among Sumar. The disagreement is not only about rating the intensity of the same problem: voters from one and the other party describe almost opposite realities.

Junts voters diverge on this issue from the left-wing parties that supported Pedro Sánchez’s investiture. A 56.3% of their voters believes that immigration brings more problems than benefits, against 14.6% who point to the opposite. The remaining 29.1% finds a balance.

The impact of age on the perception of immigration

Age introduces another striking gap: the most critical positions are not concentrated among the elderly, but among young adults. 43% of people aged 25 to 34 believe that immigration generates more problems than benefits, the highest percentage of all age brackets. Only 18.8% see a favorable balance.

Among the young people aged 18 to 24, negative opinions also predominate, albeit with a smaller difference: 44.5% point to more problems, 30.4% consider the impact balanced and 25.1% highlight the benefits.

The relationship changes as age increases. Among Spaniards aged 65 to 74, 42.5% think immigration generates more benefits, versus 35% who observe more problems. It is the only band in which the positive view clearly dominates.

The income analysis also yields differences. Among those earning less than 1,000 euros per month, 46.1% perceive more problems and only 17.8% more benefits. In the 2,000 to 3,000 euro bracket, the gap narrows to 36.7% versus 31.9%. If occupation is taken into account, almost half of workers — the 49.3% — have a negative view, while the percentage drops to 34.9% among retirees.

No gender gap appears, however, comparable to that observed in voting. Men and women nearly coincide in the positive assessment —29.5% and 29.9%—, although men lean more toward the negative response: 45.4% versus 35.8% of women. Women more often opt to consider the impact of immigration balanced.

“Among those earning less than 1,000 euros per month, 46.1% perceive more problems and only 17.8% more benefits”

The differences paint a public opinion less uniform than the political debate often suggests. There is no unanimous stance: 40.5% see more problems than benefits, while nearly six in ten Spaniards are divided between those who emphasize positive contributions and those who see both dimensions as balanced.

In this case, the main frontier is the political divide itself. Among Vox voters, negative perception reaches 92.7%; among Sumar voters, it is barely 2.9%. Immigration, which is one of the central issues of public discussion, has become one of the topics that most separate Spanish electorates.

The pan-European polling firm Cluster17 has established itself as one of Spain’s most accurate. Its 2023 general elections poll was the second most accurate in votes and the third in seats, according to Electomanía. In 2024, with the poll published in Agenda Pública, it achieved the most precise estimate of the Catalan elections and, also through this outlet, the third most accurate in the global ranking of seats and votes in the European elections.