European heads of state and government will meet this coming Thursday and Friday in Brussels for an ordinary European Council marked by two key elements: the future of Ukraine in relation to the EU and the negotiation of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF), the Twenty-Seven’s joint budget that will cover 2028 to 2034. A debate is also expected on the trade imbalances between the European Union and China, with the European Commission pushing for the use of stronger trade defense instruments against Beijing, although the initial drafts of conclusions do not include mentions of China.
“Four months ago, the Twenty-Seven gathered for an informal meeting to have a deep and strategic debate about the direction of the Union”
At the summit there is a through-line for almost all the debates: June’s leaders are being pressed on by February’s European leaders. At that moment, four months ago, the Twenty-Seven gathered for an informal meeting at Alden Biesen Castle, in eastern Belgium, to hold a deep and strategic discussion about the direction of the Union. In several of the key points the focus was on the June European Council.
Both Emmanuel Macron, the French president, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, expressed their willingness to see real progress in the relaunch agenda of the internal market at the June summit. It is time to take the temperature of the debate and decide what happens next. In February, Macron called for “acting immediately”. “If by June we do not have concrete prospects or tangible progress, we will have to move forward with enhanced cooperation”, the Frenchman stated. Von der Leyen also supported the use of that instrument so that a group of member states can advance the reform agenda, provided that the door remains open for other club members to join.
“If there is no backing to advance with the reform agenda, this bloc of countries will use enhanced cooperation”
The E6, the group of six major EU economies, including Spain, has advanced with an agenda of reform proposals in the area of securitization, and the matter has been presented to the finance ministers of the rest of the club’s partners at a meeting held this past Friday in Luxembourg. The message they are sending is clear: if there is no support to move forward with the reform agenda, this bloc of countries will use enhanced cooperation. The European Council will serve to see where this debate stands, and the E6’s objective is to reach an agreement before summer at the Council.
Budget and Ukraine
The MFF was the other issue that could not be kept aside for too long. António Costa, president of the European Council, had tried to put it on the table even before Alden Biesen, without success, and again it was addressed, very roughly, at the Cyprus summit. Now yes, the heads of state and government have to roll up their sleeves and start to speak seriously about the next multiannual financial framework: where the money comes from and what it is used for, whether a new use of joint debt is contemplated, as requested by the Spanish government and, for example, the European Central Bank (ECB), or whether Germany and other member states’ rejection is confirmed.
The Cypriot presidency has already presented the first negotiation box, what in EU jargon is known as a “negobox“, with horizontal cuts across all headings compared to the European Commission’s proposal, but proportionally larger cuts in the headings considered innovative. The Netherlands, Sweden or Germany have already been blunt about Cyprus’ proposal: it is not acceptable in any way. The Dutch Finance Ministry has dubbed it a “no-go box“.
The question of the credibility of Ukraine’s accession process is the other hot issue that European leaders will have to address, and they will have this discussion only a few days after many of the leaders attended the Western Balkans meeting in Montenegro, a region key to the European Union and that is feeling displaced by Kyiv. In any case, the European Council will have the political breathing space from the formal agreement reached last week to open the first chapters of negotiation with Ukraine and Moldova.
“The question of the credibility of Ukraine’s accession process is the other hot issue that European leaders will have to address”
The Twenty-Seven meet with the proposal put forward by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to offer Ukraine a status similar to that of an observer within the Union, with the right to a seat, but not to vote, in a number of community institutions, with access to parts of the common budget and with the political commitment to be covered by Article 42.7, the collective defense clause of the European treaties that is not operationalized nor ready to be used in a wartime context. The proposal is generating wariness in Kyiv, not so much about the format, but about the Ukrainian government’s lack of confidence that this status will not become a limbo from which the country cannot exit and will remain de facto as a second-class member of the Union.
The heads of state and government will meet only a few hours after the G7 summit in Évian (France), and the shadow of that gathering will loom over the European Council. High-level EU sources take for granted that at the G7 the issue of peace negotiations on Ukraine will be addressed, and the leaders also plan to reflect in the conclusions European support for a dialogue with Russia regarding Kyiv, without entering the idea of a European special envoy to deal with the Kremlin.
