Two weeks ago, The Forecasting Machine placed Friedrich Merz’s future in a dead heat: 50% probability that the German chancellor would serve out his term and 50% that he would leave office early. The next test had already been identified: the elections on September 20 in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The final result was that the CDU lost ground in both, and after that, the forecast tie was broken.
Now, the probability that Merz would leave office prematurely is 53.5%, versus 46.5% that he would complete the legislature. It is a narrow difference, so both outcomes remain possible, but on Sunday, the probability of an early exit had risen to 64.5%.
One day later it had fallen eleven points. Between updates, Merz ruled out resigning, withstood the moment of greatest pressure after the elections, and retained enough support within his party to continue.
The September 20 Test
On September 20, the CDU suffered two new setbacks. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern it secured only 4.9% and fell out of the regional parliament, its worst result in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic. The AfD won with 38.2%. In Berlin, The Left finished first with 25.7%, the CDU dropped below 19%, and the AfD achieved its best historical result in the capital.
“Merz ruled out resigning, withstood the moment of greatest pressure after the elections, and maintained enough support within his party to continue”
Political scientist Ruth Ferrero-Turrión analyzed on Monday the electoral consequences of both results. For the chancellor and Christian Democratic leader, the most relevant aim is to try to anticipate the effect these defeats might have within his party. After this weekend’s results, there have already been three consecutive regional elections that feed the CDU a difficult question to avoid: how much of their deterioration is due to structural problems within the party and how much is starting to be linked to the chancellor himself.
Merz has acknowledged the severity of the blow and, although he described the result as a “disaster,” rejected resigning, insisting that he would press ahead with his reform program. Subsequently, several CDU leaders have also supported his continuation. So far, there hasn’t been a strong alternative around a possible successor articulated.
From 64.5% to 53.5% in One Day
On Sunday, The Forecasting Machine placed the probability of Merz leaving before May 2029 at 64.5% and left at 35.5% the chance that he would complete the term.
“How much of his deterioration is due to structural problems within the party and how much is starting to be tied to the chancellor himself?”
Its analysis spoke of a “leadership crisis,” and the regional setbacks could already affect the chancellor’s position. Among the signals cited were the cancellation of international trips, the CDU leadership meeting, and the first internal criticisms, which raised the possibility that the electoral blow could precipitate a change in Merz’s leadership.
But, as we know, that exit did not occur. On Monday Merz remained in office, had explicitly ruled out resigning, and retained the backing of important CDU figures. The Forecasting Machine then lowered the probability of him leaving before May 2029 to 53.5%.
Is it a failure? Not really. The model attributes the correction to Merz having “survived the moment of maximum immediate pressure.” Having resisted the first days after the elections reduces the likelihood of a precipitous exit, although it does not imply that the chancellor’s political wear and tear has vanished.
What Keeps Merz Standing?
The main factor containing that risk remains the same as two weeks ago: CDU/CSU and SPD have strong incentives to avoid early federal elections.
“Having withstood the first days after the elections reduces the possibility of a precipitous exit”
The two partners arrive at the polls weakened, while the radical right, AfD, sits clearly above both. Moreover, a survey by INSA this week already gave the Weidel camp a ten-point lead over the CDU and the SPD. Consequently, returning to the polls immediately could punish both the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. Also, the German constitution favors continuity because a constructive vote of no confidence requires simultaneously choosing another chancellor, for which, at present, there does not appear to be an alternative parliamentary majority.
Therefore, the three electoral blows do not by themselves topple the head of government. Merz retains the majority in the Bundestag and his coalition still has strong reasons to press on to 2029.
As for potential successors, there is no consensus about possible candidates. Several names surfaced in the discussion about the CDU’s future, but organizing a leadership change would first require an internal agreement within the party and then the cooperation of the Social Democrats. It will not be easy for a name to emerge, because the tension at the Chancellery is high and with the rise of the radical right, the new chancellor could quickly burn out.
“CDU/CSU and SPD have strong incentives to avoid early federal elections”
At present, the coalition continues to approve measures and Merz intends to respond to the crisis by accelerating economic, fiscal, and pension system reforms. If the government manages to deliver results and the economic situation improves, the Christian Democrat would have grounds to argue that a change in leadership would add instability without solving CDU’s electoral problems.
The Risk Shifts to the CDU
Two weeks ago, one of the main arguments against Merz’s departure was that replacing the chancellor could jeopardize a coalition that neither partner had incentives to break. The latest elections reinforce a different possibility: that preserving the coalition may hinge on replacing the chancellor.
The coalition’s institutional stability does not by itself guarantee Merz’s personal continuity. If CDU/CSU and SPD came to believe that another chancellor would help maintain the parliamentary majority and confront 2029 under better electoral conditions, they could negotiate a replacement without immediately calling federal elections.
For now there are no political conditions to do so. The CDU leadership continues to back Merz and there is no alternative candidate around whom a majority has formed. That could change if defeats persist.
“The institutional stability of the coalition does not by itself guarantee Merz’s personal continuity”
The three latest results are not identical, but they accumulate on the same internal debate. AfD surpassed the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt; in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Christian Democrats were left without parliamentary representation for the first time in their history, and in Berlin they again lost ground to Die Linke. Added to this are national polls particularly unfavorable for the chancellor and his party.
Merz Surpasses the First Danger, but 2029 Remains Open
Friedrich Merz has emerged from the moment of greatest political pressure after the September 20 elections. The drop from 64.5% to 53.5% shows that a resignation or a rapid replacement weighs less in the forecast now than it did over the weekend.
The horizon for the legislature is somewhat different. Less than two weeks ago, completing the term and leaving early had exactly the same probability. After three regional defeats and a weekend in which the exit probability reached 64.5%, Merz remains in office. Even discounting the risk of an immediate reaction, The Forecasting Machine still places the possibility that he might not reach May 2029 slightly above.
Keeping the parliamentary majority is no longer the only problem for Merz, who remains confident in serving out his term and stabilizing the country. For this goal, he needs to prevent within the CDU the idea from taking hold that the coalition can survive better with another chancellor.
