On one side, the popular Moreno Bonilla, aiming for reelection, wants to stay the leader of the PP’s wing that is an alternative to Ayuso’s line and, consequently, under no circumstances does he want to convey the impression that he is yielding to Vox in all its demands. On the other side, Vox’s people shun being the fixed one in the PP’s betting pools; they do not want to be seen as what Sumar or ERC are to PSOE: a guaranteed support under any circumstance.
“The Abascal faction shuns being the fixed ‘one’ in the PP’s odds; they do not want to be seen as what Sumar or ERC are to PSOE”
The PP dragged itself into negotiations with Vox because it took two weeks to move past the grief of losing the absolute majority, and that lost time means that now the plenary of the 29th and 30th is not the horizon of an investiture. The only thing the two formations agree on is that September 2, the date on which, if there is no deal, the Parliament would be dissolved, is an insurmountable red line and that the agreement, which will exist, must arrive before that date. The president of the Andalusian Parliament, Jesús Aguirre, has made clear that, if necessary, the entire August will be workable to hold an investiture plenary.
Moreno Bonilla dreams of emulating Salvador Illa, president of the Catalan Generalitat, who governs without a majority, but on his own. However, in Catalonia the socialists took advantage of the aversion to responsibility of Republicans and En Comú Podem, who prefer to pact from outside the Executive rather than bear the wear of teachers’ strikes or the malfunction of Rodalies.
Vox has entered the governments of Extremadura, Castilla y León and Aragón and does not seem willing to accept the argument of Moreno Bonilla that “only” two more seats are needed for a majority as an excuse not to offer them entry into the Government Council. The recent negotiations in other regions where Vox has in all cases taken the portfolios of Agriculture and Family give clues about what Manuel Gavira’s demands are, Vox’s leader in Andalusia, and where the negotiations are heading.
“The recent negotiations in other communities in which Vox has taken in all cases the portfolios of Agriculture and Family give clues about what the demands are”
The battle for the narrative goes beyond who manages to impose on public opinion the image of having won the negotiation. The term “national priority,” which Mañueco, Azcón and Guardiola have had to adopt as their own to secure Vox votes in their respective investitures, is also on the table in the Andalusian negotiation and neither Vox is willing to concede removing it from the pact’s text nor the PP to include it. Today, semantics, or in other words the narrative again, plays a fundamental role in the agreement.
Juan Manuel Moreno faces the investiture having to deliver a balancing speech in which he does not blow up bridges with Vox, but also does not seem to be handing over to Gavira. He benefits from the extreme weakness of the Socialists, both nationally and regionally. María Jesús Montero, since Election Day, has remained silent and has disappeared from the scene trying that the scandals of her party—and especially the role played by SEPI in various cases under investigation—do not taint her.
In that balancing strategy that must lead to investiture, Moreno Bonilla has kept several cards. One is the inclusion of a Vox member in the Mesa; the other, the cession of a senator by autonomous designation. For Vox, these concessions are minor matters. Vox’s people want to correct in 2026 the 2019 mistake of handing the Junta to the PP without closing all strands of the agreement. Now they want that the policy against the Green Pact, the control of renewables, the fiscal policy and the immigration policy bear unmistakably their signature.
“The Abascal people want to correct in 2026 the error of 2019 of handing the Junta to the PP without closing all strands of the agreement”
Juanma Moreno cites the need to approve the 2027 budget on time to speed up the negotiations. And it is not unlikely that between the first and second vote the PP tries to seal a pact, but in the Andalusian polymarket everyone points to a busy July to avoid arriving with urgency in September; after all, Andalusia is not just anything: it is the most populous community in Spain and a true testing ground for a future national pact between the two formations.
