The Partido Popular continues to lead voters’ preferences if general elections were held today, with 30.1% of the votes, followed by the PSOE by two points at 28.1%. Vox would remain the third force with 16.1%, above the 12.4% it obtained in the 2023 elections, while the space to the left of the Socialists would remain divided between Sumar (6.1%) and Podemos (3.6%), losing support compared to the latest elections. Behind them come ERC (2%), Se Acabó La Fiesta (1.7%), Junts and Aliança Catalana (both at 1.6%), EH Bildu (1.3%) and the PNV (1.1%).
This is reflected in the latest poll by the pan-European polling firm Cluster17 for Agenda Pública. The survey, with 1,637 respondents, was conducted from August 22 to 25, amid the Ceuta crisis and with immigration occupying a central place on the political agenda.
The sum of PP and Vox thus reaches 46.1%, versus 37.8% that PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos collective hold. The gap between the two blocs exceeds eight points and is smaller than in the previous Cluster17 poll published by Agenda Pública in November 2025, when PP and Vox together hovered around 50%.
“The sum of PP and Vox reaches 46.1%, compared to the 37.8% gathered by PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos”
The comparison with the elections of 23J shows similar losses for the two main parties. The declared intention for PP sits three points below the 33.1% it obtained in 2023. The PSOE’s intention is 3.6 percentage points below its 23J result. Vox records 16.1% declared intention, 3.7 points above the result it achieved in 2023. To the left of the PSOE, Sumar and Podemos now total 9.7%, versus 12.3% that the joint Sumar candidacy obtained three years ago.
Vox continues to persuade within the PP; Sumar disperses
Vote transfers offer a more detailed view of where shifts are occurring. Vox retains the most loyal electorate among the main forces: 84% of those who supported Santiago Abascal in 2023 would do so again. Meanwhile, the PP (78.3%) and the PSOE (77.1%) have very similar retention percentages.
“Vox retains the most loyal electorate among the main forces: 84% of those who supported Santiago Abascal in 2023 would do so again”
However, examining leaks reveals inequalities. 15.3% of those who voted for the PP in the last general election would today vote for Vox, while the reverse path would be taken by 7% of former Abascal voters. The exchange thus benefits Vox, especially given the larger starting size of the PP’s electorate. SALF, in turn, attracts 6.5% of those who voted for Vox in 2023.
There is also movement between PSOE and PP. Almost one in ten PSOE voters from 23J — 9.5% — would now opt for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The direct transfer from PSOE to Vox is much smaller, at 1.3%.
The main problem for Sumar is dispersion. Only 40.7% of its 2023 voters remain with it: 26.1% shift to PSOE and 20.3% to Podemos. Much of the loss, therefore, stays within the left, but it is now spread across three ballots.
In Catalonia, the contest is close. Among those who voted for Junts in 2023, 44.6% would repeat for them today, while 36.6% would choose Aliança Catalana.
Women continue to sustain the PSOE
Gender differences remain evident in support for the PSOE and Vox. Among men, in absolute terms, the PP is the leading force with 30.1%, followed by the PSOE (26.2%) and Vox (19.3%). Among women the order shifts: the PSOE sits slightly ahead of the PP, with 30.1% versus 29.8%, while Vox drops to 12.9%.
“Among men, in absolute terms, the PP is the leading force with 30.1%, followed by the PSOE (26.2%) and Vox (19.3%)”
The Vox gap exceeds six points between the two sexes. In the PSOE the opposite occurs: their vote intention is almost four points higher among women. The PP shows virtually no differences. Sumar also gains slightly more female support — 6.5% versus 5.8% among men — and Podemos rises from 2.7% among men to 4.5% among women.
The PP is the youth’s preferred party and Vox stands out among workers
Regarding the generational split, the cross-tabs show that the party of Núñez Feijóo would be the leading force among both 18-to-24-year-olds and 25-to-34-year-olds. Among the first group, it reaches 31%, followed by Sumar (17.6%), Vox (13.7%), and PSOE (12%). Among those aged 25 to 34, the PP rises to 36.1%, compared with 18.6% for the PSOE and 16.7% for Vox.
Things start to shift with those over 35. The PSOE becomes the leading force among 35- to 49-year-olds, with 27%, and reaches 34.4% among 50- to 64-year-olds. The PP regains dominance among older voters: it obtains 33.4% among 65- to 74-year-olds and 38.4% among those over 75.
And by occupation? Here Vox is the first option among respondents classified as workers, with 28.7%, ahead of the PSOE (23.3%) and the PP (22.3%). Among executives and high-level intellectual professionals, however, the PP reaches 35.1%, ten points above the PSOE.
Income, for its part, intensifies that distance: among those reporting earnings above 5,000 euros monthly, the PP reaches 49.5%. Among those earning less than 1,000 euros, the PSOE leads with 30.2%, while PP and Vox hover around 21%.
The opinion clusters Cluster17 uses to segment respondents offer another way to view this separation: the PSOE concentrates 64.6% of the vote among those labeled as “progressives,” the PP reaches 86.8% among the “liberals,” and Vox is the leading force among the “patriots,” with 52.5%.
The clusters are categories built from combinations of attitudes and values and do not directly correspond to political parties. The progressives represent the profile most oriented toward left-leaning social and cultural positions; the liberals combine values of individual freedom with generally moderate stances; the patriots place greater emphasis on nation, identity, and sovereignty; the traditionalists emphasize more conservative social and cultural values; the authoritarians show a stronger preference for order, authority, and firm responses; the anti-interventionists are characterized by opposition to strong state intervention; and the anti-welfare stand out for a critical stance toward redistributive and social protection policies.
Aliança Catalana calls on the doors of Congress
Aliança Catalana could be in a position to contest its entry into the Congress of Deputies if it decided to run in general elections. The contrast between its 1.57% probable support across Spain and 12% in Catalonia is particularly significant: the small national percentage hides a territorial concentration of votes that could allow it to overcome effective barriers imposed by the electoral system.
“The key, therefore, is not so much the 1.57% nationwide as the territorial distribution of that 12% in Catalonia”
Aliança Catalana does not need to be a major force across Spain to gain representation; it would suffice to convert its Catalan presence into votes sufficiently concentrated in certain constituencies. With 12% in Catalonia, the party of Sílvia Orriols would enter a voting zone where one or more seats stop being a far-fetched hypothesis, especially in provinces with smaller electoral footprints, where a candidacy around those percentages could compete for the last spots in the distribution. The key, therefore, is not so much the 1.57% nationwide as the territorial distribution of that 12% in Catalonia.
Barcelona, with its high number of seats, offers a different scenario from Girona, Lleida, or Tarragona, where small variations in vote concentration can be decisive. If this trend continued and the party managed to consolidate its territorial presence, its entry into the Congress could become one of the major novelties of future general elections if they decided to run.
The precedent of Alvise: Cluster17 and Agenda Pública had already anticipated its entry into Europe
Agenda Pública and Cluster17 had already anticipated in May 2024 the rise of Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), the right-wing populist platform led by Alvise Pérez, a political agitator who had built his notoriety primarily through social networks and who until then had not held any elected office. The poll projected 3.8% of the votes and two European MPs for SALF, foreshadowing entry into the European Parliament that eventually occurred: SALF won three seats and nearly 800,000 votes in the June elections.
The pan-European polling firm Cluster17 has established itself as one of Spain’s most accurate. Its poll for the 2023 general elections was the second most accurate in votes and the third in seats, according to Electomanía. In 2024, with the poll published in Agenda Pública, it achieved the most precise estimate of the Catalan elections and, also through this outlet, the third most accurate in the overall ranking of seats and votes in the European elections.
For a sample of this size, the conventional precision at the 95% level places the maximum margin at ±2.4 percentage points.
The voting intention is calculated among those who express a party option. Each response is weighted by the declared probability of voting, measured on a scale from zero to ten. The result is a directly weighted intention without estimation or redistribution of undecideds. The crossbreaks are shown for groups with at least thirty interviews.
