Last week, Pedro Sánchez rose as an unexpected counterpoint to the iron fist of Trump and Netanyahu. His “no to war” stance in the face of the US and Israel’s offensive against Iran has struck a deep chord, linking with a cross-cutting worry: the normalization of arbitrariness in geopolitics. The key has been to remind that one can condemn the brutality of a regime and, at the same time, position oneself as a guardian of legality. As the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, already warned, the international system is a fragile construction whose longevity depends on our shared willingness to believe in it. If the pact is broken, the wall that has protected us from the imposition of brute force for more than eighty years will crumble.
“Perhaps the turning of the era is already unstoppable. The multilateral order is a historical parenthesis and seems to be closing”
Support for Sánchez crosses borders and ideologies, although the repercussions of his decision remain uncertain. Perhaps the turning of the era is already unstoppable. The multilateral order is a historical parenthesis and seems to be closing. It is also unclear whether Sánchez’s viral moment will reflect at the polls. Voters are less responsive to foreign policy than to the state of the national economy —which, paradoxically, is set to suffer the consequences of war—. What matters is that the optimism sparked by his stance recalls the importance of listening to the popular will. Citizen backing is a sine qua non condition to guarantee the viability of the European project.
Spain and the European Union express themselves in different ways
Against Madrid’s clear voice, Brussels stammers. The fear of unleashing Trump’s wrath seems to have paralyzed its leaders. The High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, has limited herself to condemning Iran. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has even questioned the future of the rules-based order, suggesting that it cannot be the only way to defend European interests. The one who three years ago promised to “lead efforts to make the rule-based order fairer” now asserts that Europe cannot continue to be the guardian of that order. It is particularly disconcerting coming from the institution charged precisely with guarding the Treaties.
“Legitimating the law of the strongest leaves us naked in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the United States’ claims over Greenland”
The words of Von der Leyen project a troubling indifference toward the will of a citizenry that does not want to be dragged into another country’s conflict. They deepen the rift between Brussels’ elite and civil society, feeding a sense of democratic deficit at a moment of great delicacy. It is a miscalculation to underestimate the value of social cohesion as a defense. As Winston Churchill showed in the last century, strength sometimes resides in the mood of the people, and a frightened population is a defeated one. Legitimating the law of the strongest leaves us naked before the Russian invasion of Ukraine or the United States’ claims on Greenland. Moreover, the inevitable crisis —economic, energy, migratory— that looms ahead portends discontent on the national level. Populism and anti-European sentiment thrive on the ashes of social stability.
We are facing an unknown geopolitical tableau, yes. But the new reality is still being formed and, therefore, can be shaped. The strategic autonomy that Brussels longs for will be mere paper if Europe does not defend its interests for fear of opposing a former partner who has become very unreliable.
The European Union and the mirror of Donald Trump
To forge real strategic autonomy, first it is necessary to shield the Union’s fundamental values, which clash head-on with Trump’s agenda. Deregulation and neoliberal policies have fractured the American social contract, scarred by a deep economic and social divide. Trump managed to capitalize on that discontent, spreading a populist message amplified by the free flow of misinformation on social networks. Despite his famous Make America Great Again, internal democratic decline has accelerated since he came to power, with direct harassment of universities, judges, journalists, jurists and, ultimately, all checks and balances of the system.
In the face of capricious paleoconservatism, the EU has consolidated itself as a normative power grounded in values of solidarity and convergence policies that safeguard welfare. As an indispensable market, it has been able to develop a regulatory framework that protects sustainability, competition, workers’ rights, and data protection. Its impact extends beyond European borders. To access its market, even the most powerful global actors must comply with the rules. In that normative model lies Europe’s true sovereignty. Trump’s attempts to intimidate the EU with tariffs to curb the impact of its digital regulation demonstrate the effectiveness of these laws.
“The Draghi Report itself also notes that dependencies and the lack of investment in innovation are the real remaining tasks”
Pese a ello, Europe has been ceding ground for some time. Under the banner of simplification, the protective regulatory network painstakingly built is being eroded. Since Mario Draghi noted that Brussels’ bureaucracy is the main drag on European competitiveness, there has been a push for deregulation. It is disappointing that Europe is ready to abandon its mission so quickly in the name of equality and welfare, especially when the Draghi Report itself also notes that dependencies and the underinvestment in innovation remain the real pending tasks.
A second fundamental step toward the EU’s strategic autonomy is to conceive geopolitics as a board of more dynamic alliances. In the face of fragile Atlanticism, defending European interests and managing its vulnerabilities require new partners. Interestingly, the geopolitical crisis has also given rise to a spontaneous axis of peace between Beijing and Madrid. China has not only echoed Spain’s concern about the affront to international law that war represents; it has also warned that trade should not be used as a weapon, referring to Trump’s threat to break trade ties with Spain. This closing of ranks contrasts with the deafening silence of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was sitting beside Trump when he attacked Sánchez.
European leaders parade through Beijing, but the EU needs a united front to negotiate on equal terms. Until recently, the marked differences between Europe and China regarding geopolitics or fundamental rights complicated their rapprochement. But European perception of China is improving by leaps according to polls, and Washington’s threats push more than ever to build new bridges.
Facing the crisis, Europe has a unique opportunity to reaffirm its values, forge new axes of cooperation, and turn its vulnerability into a unifying strength. Firmly defending the pillars of the international order earns respect and inspiration and allows reconnecting with the citizenry. Let us hope that EU leadership does not forget that sometimes strength does not reside only in the arsenal, but also in the moral authority to defend legality against barbarity.
