The results of the midterm elections held on November 3 of this past year have been decisive. The Democratic Party achieves a historic victory, in its breadth and depth, and regains control of Congress with comfortable majorities in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. The Republican Party suffers a severe defeat, even in some states traditionally aligned with them, such as Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and the two Carolinas.
There are also certainties about the keys to these elections. Voters have agreed that the country’s main problems are the economy (39%) and the state of democracy (32%), followed, at a distance, by immigration (14%). This dispels the oft-repeated false dichotomy about the citizen’s preferred choice between economic well-being and the rights and freedoms guaranteed by democracy.
“Voters have agreed that the country’s main problems are the economy (39%) and the state of democracy (32%)”
The results express a broad majority rejection of Trump’s political decisions, including foreign policy (notably the Iran “war of choice,” but also support for Netanyahu’s Israel); immigration policy (the brutality of ICE and violent deportations); trade policy (tariffs and their domestic impacts); and economic policy (the cost of living, whose rise, as a result of all the above, has caused difficulties and impoverishment for the majority).
Nevertheless, these midterms also constitute unambiguous support for greater diversity (racial, sexual orientation, and age) as well as for greater political representation of women (primarily on the Democratic side). The result challenges another false dichotomy between an agenda focused on citizens’ problems and concerns (material conditions, in particular) and another identity-centered one focused on “culture wars”.
According to exit polls, Democratic-leaning voting has grown and surpasses Republican voting in all age groups, except those over 65; in all racial minorities; in all income levels; in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants; and in peripheral areas. 58% of women voted for the Democratic Party, compared with 40% for the Republican Party. 72% of young people (who make up 11% of the electorate) voted for Democratic candidates, and among young women the figure reaches 80%. Republican voting remains higher in small towns and rural areas (where 35% of the population resides), and among white men without a college degree.
The “blue wave” undoubtedly translates into a broad and cross-cutting rejection of how citizens’ concerns, frustration and discontent have been addressed. But that discontent, including the resentment that Trump was able to capitalize on to win the presidential elections in 2016 and 2024, has not disappeared. Added to it is a majority concern about the state of democracy.
“That discontent, including the resentment that Trump managed to capitalize on to win the presidential elections in 2016 and 2024, has not disappeared”
The results also show persistent imbalances, along with the capacity to keep breaking ceilings. These have been elections of many firsts, although almost all led by the Democratic Party. The first Black female governor (Georgia); the first Muslim senator, in Michigan; the first Latino governor in California; the first Latina governor in Texas, and the first Democrat there since 1990; the first Native American female governor in New Mexico; the first Black governor of Florida (Republican); the first openly gay senator. The number of women in the House of Representatives rises (at least 132, mostly Democrats), and the number of governors (17 of the total, 14 Democrats and 3 Republicans), though still far from parity.
Trump has already announced his intention to use the presidential veto against Democratic control of Congress, although his preference to “not veto everything for two years” also exists, which opens the possibility of forging alliances to achieve outcomes. His constitutional margin in foreign policy, security and trade is wide, and he will be able to govern by decree. But he loses legislative control, and with it the ability to pass budgets (including the money allocated to the Pentagon). The Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has rejected “budgetary adjustments,” emphasizing that his party will focus on solving citizens’ problems, particularly the cost of living. There seems to be room for negotiation.
The internal keys are essential to analyze what can be expected from the United States in the rest of the world, particularly the EU. This new United States Congress is likely to align more closely with European objectives on Ukraine, which constitutes an existential priority. The transatlantic relationship, which goes beyond the federal government and the figure of the president, could regain some muscle or, at least, open new spaces of understanding, dialogue and cooperation, steering interactions away from more transactional and aggressive channels and perhaps toward more symmetrical arrangements.
“The transatlantic relationship, which goes beyond the federal government and the figure of the president, could regain some muscle”
The Democratic Party’s political priorities will focus mainly inward. Consolidating the support received to build a solid alternative for the 2028 presidential elections can only come by offering answers to citizens’ concerns, primarily the cost of living, but also the state of democracy. A strengthening of the United States liberal democracy benefits the European Union as a whole.
The defeat of Trump and the blue wave represent a loss of reference for the right-wing radical parties of EU member states. They could undermine the narratives of political forces that challenge the European project (as Trump himself does), though it is harder to know whether they will have an impact on their electoral performance. On the external front, the prospect of a change in the White House in 2028 and Trump’s weakness offer Europe greater autonomy in its view of the international order and its alliance strategy, including the Latin American region.
According to the latest V-Dem report from the University of Gothenburg (Sweden), the United States lost, for the first time in 50 years, its status as a liberal democracy. Its database includes five fundamental indices of democracy: electoral, liberal, egalitarian, participatory and deliberative. In these midterms, the mechanisms of electoral democracy functioned (there was a fear that they might not). The liberal dimension has recovered some of its key elements (in particular the system of checks and balances of the executive power by the legislative power). The deliberative dimension (the building of broad consensus on public policies) and the participatory dimension (consultation with civil society and the citizenry) will depend on the will of both parties in this new phase. All of this matters to the European Union, even though it does not depend on it.
“The defeat of Trump and the ‘blue wave’ represent a loss of reference for the radical-right political formations of EU member states”
A partir del 3 de enero de 2027, the Congress will project a more representative image of American society. The election results strengthen the checks and balances indispensable in a liberal democracy. The European Union—and its way of being in the world—will be grateful for it, even though the international order will not return to the moment before its collapse. Its transformation is not reversible. But, with a United States as emerged from these elections and a presidency different from 2028 onward, perhaps there will be opportunities to shape a new international order (more legitimate and inclusive) for this 21st century.
