From the moment democracy was established, Spaniards have shown a keen interest in foreign policy, as seen in the polarization over American bases in Spain, our entry into NATO, and our involvement in the 2003 Iraq War. These events forged in the popular imagination the idea that diplomacy has an inherent moral aim, with clear moral poles. This is a noble notion, worthy of a generous people, but it does not fit the actual course of history. History teaches that nations prioritize national interest above all, and when it serves them, they combine that interest with acts of benevolence—a line of thought associated with realism. Political polarization, however, has obscured what that national interest requires of Spain. This article aims to help restore that clarity.
Strategic competition
A golden age of democratic expansion has passed its apex, giving way to the return of defense, empires, and strategic competition. The world order that emerged from the fall of the Berlin Wall is wearing thin. Multilateral organizations are being sidelined; the once-unassailable dominance of the United States is being challenged by Iran in the Middle East, Russia in Eastern Europe, and China across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, complicating Washington’s ability to project its economic and military power as it did in the past. The end of Washington’s hegemony across multiple strategic theaters is producing a multipolar world in which regional leaders hold sway over spheres of influence. Spain cannot act as its own strategic pole and, therefore, must seek niches of competitiveness.
“The end of Washington’s hegemony across multiple strategic fronts creates a multipolar world, in which regional leaders control spheres of influence”
This competition among great powers is primarily expressed on the economic front. Capitals, with increasing frequency, use their grip on production chains to weaken rivals. We have seen this especially with China’s controls on rare-earth exports to Japan and the United States, underscoring Western dependencies on China for these materials, chips, pharmaceuticals and other critical materials. Likewise, Washington has imposed its own controls (though now repealed) on advanced AI models and Nvidia’s cutting-edge semiconductors.
This return of strategic competition has been framed as opposed to the improvement of life in Spain, with a false narrative that investments in defense or industry siphon resources away from the common good. To seriously address our strategic needs, we must understand that these investments are not optional, but the only way to safeguard the freedoms and privileges we have recently enjoyed.
Geography is destiny
Spain’s national interest is tied to our geography, a key to opportunities and obstacles. Spain is one of the few countries that can be considered European, Atlantic, Mediterranean, and, in part, African powers; we must craft a clear strategy across all theaters.
Europe, the first frontier
Spain’s future prosperity and global relevance are bound to Europe. The Maastricht, Rome, and Lisbon Treaties have created an entity that, beyond a single market, projects the voice of its member states in strategic matters, especially as they become less powerful. In 1980, the current twenty-seven EU members represented 29% of world GDP; in 2024, 17.5%, at current prices. These figures reveal a waning relevance on the global stage and a Europe that is increasingly less competitive. Since the EU is Spain’s largest source of investment and trade, it is correct to understand that it is our national interest for Europe to be the most competitive version of itself, not the slowest. Former Italian prime ministers Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi authored two reports with measures to counter problematic trends, including integrating banks, investments, and capital markets into the European single market. Madrid should back these measures.
“It is in our national interest that Europe be the most competitive version of itself, not the slowest”
Today, European competitiveness is threatened by internal decisions. Decades of technological regulation and, more recently, AI regulation, combined with CO2 tonnage accounting and with national tax and regulatory pressures, make it very hard for companies to scale both within and beyond the European market. All this, together with the disunity of the European Single Market in capital markets, banks, energy and telecommunications, puts the old continent two steps away from a major leap, one that Spain has an interest in leading. So far, the major European strides have largely been made by France and Germany. Madrid is not only interested in following but in leading. In a scenario where European capitals hesitate to advance, Moncloa should set an example and also encourage other capitals to realize a stronger, more agile, and competitive EU, not a slow one.
The key in Europe, however, lies in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the event that will test our capacity and will in history. It also represents the most existential risk to the survival of the common European project, since a hybrid attack against one of the smallest members could lead to its dissolution. Showing weakness in our military support for Ukraine will only encourage more attacks, hybrid or not, on EU and NATO territory. A few months ago, the Prime Minister stated that “we have the Pyrenees” as natural defense and, while true, cyberattacks do not stop at mountains nor drones. Moreover, by suggesting that Spain is not at risk when our closest allies feel threatened, he embodies Putin’s aim: to weaken and fracture the European unity that stands up to him. Spain must do its part on this front, and for that Madrid must stop permitting ships carrying Russian gas to dock or perform maintenance on our coasts, as happens today.
Strategic power in North Africa
Our proximity to Africa has long made Spain a leading actor on the continent, especially in the Maghreb and the northern Sahel. Ceuta, Melilla, and the Canary Islands are strategic anchors for Spain in the region, but our interests extend beyond these three enclaves, and so do our concerns. This region can and should be our niche of competitiveness.
The Sahel is the new cradle of Islamist terrorist movements, with the Islamic State regrouping in this vast desert, joined by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen, about which little is reported. This desert spans about three million square kilometers, more than Iran, Iraq, and Syria combined, and hosts the Wagner Group and drug- and people-trafficking networks. Yet it is one of the least densely populated regions on Earth, with a population density of 20 inhabitants per square kilometer, versus Spain’s 98 per square kilometer. These characteristics make monitoring this territory very difficult, a situation worsened after the departure of 4,300 French soldiers and hundreds of British troops. To worsen matters, the government decided to dismantle Spain’s intelligence capabilities, mainly the CNI, from the area, reducing visibility in the face of danger. The West is blind in one of the world’s most dangerous regions, but Spain can help. By combining drones, satellites, crime investigations, and the recovery and expansion of human intelligence capabilities, Spain can become the first intelligence provider on the African continent, becoming a strategic anchor in the region. As described in the section on transatlantic relations, this plan can assist relations with Washington.
“The West is blind in one of the world’s most dangerous regions, but Spain can help”
European influence there is diminishing; China has positioned itself as the main trade and investment partner for dozens of African nations, creating an extractive relationship in which Beijing takes control of much of their natural resources in exchange for infrastructure investments. These countries have advanced thanks to Chinese investments while the West only offered humanitarian aid. Although the EU has launched the Global Gateway and the Lobito Corridor to invest in African railways, minerals, and export capacity, Spain can contribute more. Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni’s Plan Mattei places Rome as the principal interlocutor between Europe and Africa. Madrid should mobilize diplomatically to strengthen our political footprint in Africa, viewing our southern neighbors not as dependents to be helped but as equals in which to invest and with whom to trade. The government’s green plans will require large quantities of critical minerals, previously controlled by China. With this plan, Spain can position its industry as the solution for de-risking, building trade links and investing in infrastructure.
In a world growing increasingly unilateral, where middle powers seek niches of competitiveness, Spain must look south. Our country has the unique capacity to become the leading Western actor in the region, through a combination of high-intelligence capabilities, a military presence to support local law enforcement, the sale of advanced weapons to these forces, such as drones, and a naval force to combat piracy. We must combine these plans with a new era of economic diplomacy designed to make Spain the principal interlocutor between Europe and the youngest continent on Earth.
The Atlantic link
Historically, Spain has had a transatlantic dimension that, in recent years, we have taken for granted and which we have recently neglected to cultivate.
Washington, let’s be realistic
The Madrid-Washington relationship has been the most affected by polarization. We all witnessed it when the White House threatened to cut trade relations with Spain after Madrid refused to have U.S. aircraft support its military operation in Iran. We also saw the government’s refusal to invest 5% of GDP in defense as all NATO members do, or the impossibility of U.S. ships docking at Spanish ports. Returning to the moral question, U.S. foreign policy has been presented as something to oppose without reflection.
It is true that U.S. foreign policy has been in a process of reimagining for more than a decade, and Europe matters less in its plans, which Washington has been signaling for years by asking for greater defense investments. Both a majority of deputies and the Democratic and Republican publics support NATO’s continuation, but they envision a European-pillar-led military presence on the Old Continent. In other words, they are tired of leading a continent with the economic capacity to defend itself. European leaders must abandon the notion that these expenses are a choice and revert to understanding the nature of international relations: si vis pacem, para bellum.
“European leaders must abandon the notion that these expenses are a choice and understand again the nature of international relations”
Eastern European countries understood this when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and they were prepared for the NATO summit where Allies agreed to spend at least 5% on defense (3.5% + 1.5%). Realistically, keeping NATO is worthwhile and is Europe’s best strategic asset. Not to appease Washington, but given that the world only grows more dangerous, Spain should seek niches of competitiveness to contribute unique value to the alliance if the 5% target is not met. Being providers of intelligence, reconnaissance, and connections in Africa would be an invaluable asset, especially since the Defense Department seeks to reduce its military footprint in the region.
Similarly, Washington should abandon rhetoric about Greenland and about “bad allies,” which serves no one. Spain deployed 27,100 troops to Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks; 102 Spaniards died within the mission.
Ibero-America: one step further
Since decolonization ended, Spain has strived to maintain a relationship with Ibero-America, always speaking in a cultural tone and focusing on the ties that bind us in language, history, and religion. We must go one step further.
It is true that the culture that unites us is an opportunity, but Latin American countries are very rich in rare earths, critical minerals and, above all, young talent and economic productivity. It would be a grave error to suppose these countries have no interest in becoming part of the global value chain; if that were the case, they would not accept Chinese investments in these sectors, including port development in Peru. Our emphasis on shared ties should take a strategic leap to position us as the connector and investor between Ibero-America and Europe. The region has been seeking investments in strategic sectors for decades. With Spain housing several European banking giants, the Government and the Commission should sign bilateral agreements to position Spanish banks as capital providers for the continent’s infrastructure, and Spain as Europe’s leading trading partner.
“Our focus on shared ties should take a strategic leap to position us as connector and investor between Ibero-America and Europe”
“Security is also of great relevance.” Criminal organizations that produce drugs in the hemisphere are the ones trafficking them through Spain as an entry point into Europe, risking thousands of lives and sustaining an illegal economy and a violence structure. Their operations are complex and global, with anchors in the African countries closest to Spain, increasing threats around us. Despite years of cooperation, it is important to forge an alliance with like-minded governments in the region to put an end to these criminal organizations, a matter that would be of great interest to Washington.
Technology as a tool of asymmetry
Historically, technology has been instrumental in reshaping the world order: the British Empire could intensify and consolidate its territory largely thanks to its centrality in the Industrial Revolution. The adoption and diffusion of technology in domestic industry is a major indicator of future power. AI and quantum computing are creating power asymmetries. Countries like Singapore lack large militaries, yet they have positioned themselves to become major technological powers. Likewise, albeit out of necessity, Ukraine has demonstrated this great capacity, transferring all public actions to a single application, DIIA, and becoming the best inventor of drone-defense systems, both hardware and advanced software, threatening Russia.
Until now, there has been talk of China and the U.S. duking it out to see who can develop the best algorithm fastest. It is far more important, however, to implement these models: there is little use in possessing the world’s best AI if businesses and public administrations do not use it. That is why the real race lies in the ability to export its AI models, through a diffusion strategy centered on economies of scale. The computing capacity to process these AI models will determine, then, who reaps the benefits of AI, even if it is not the most advanced. That is why the United Arab Emirates has proposed building a data center with a 5 GW capacity by December 2026. In this regard, government actions have been not only correct but leading at the European level, attracting data-center projects with a reserved capacity of 12 GW, of which the sector estimates that between 2 and 3 GW could materialize before 2030.
“The real race is in the capacity to export its AI models, via a diffusion strategy focused on economies of scale”
Nevertheless, it is essential that the government redouble its efforts to apply AI at the state level. Many bureaucratic procedures, such as renewing permits for small firms, can and should be automated with AI, learning from the Ukrainian model and using AI. Likewise, the government and the Commission should remove legal barriers that today make AI deployment in key sectors such as banking or automotive exceedingly difficult. Spain can be a technological champion and accelerate economic productivity thanks to AI innovation, or it may not, but that outcome will be impossible if we lack the physical, business, and legal infrastructure to reach that level.
Review of contemporary foreign policy
Foreign policy, like domestic policy, rests on political capital, which is finite. The causes in which a government chooses to invest reveal its priorities. Based on this, the government has heavily prioritized the Middle East’s aging dynamics, the relationship with China, and the confrontation with the U.S. in the European arena.
Analyzing the foregoing, national interest compels us to ask the following questions:
Middle East
First, the conflict among the native peoples of the so-called Holy Land, despite stirring deep emotions in the public imagination, does not substantially alter Spain’s national interest. Geographic distance partly explains the lack of economic, cultural, political, or military ties. To go further, Spain has not had a historical footprint in the Middle East nor strong ties with either side. The government, however, has made this conflict its top international priority and has characterized it in moral terms, earning applause from many groups but also anger from investors and frustration among European allies and Washington. It is true that this policy has been very popular in Spain, especially among progressive groups, but it is also true that the government itself has fostered these discourses and narratives. There is thus a substantial deficit between the political capital allocated to this controversy and Spain’s strategic interest in the region.
China
The government has also pursued important rapprochements with Beijing. It is wise to cultivate relations with the multiple power centers to maintain good ties and reap the benefits of being a connector. Yet the diplomatic moves of the last five years are concerning, with multiple European diplomats warning that Spain consistently votes in favor of Chinese interests at the EU Council, thus eroding our credibility. The concern deepens given that the entire fleet of public buses has been supplied to BYD, the Chinese manufacturer, while large sectors of national telecommunications were granted to Huawei, including networks for the Defense Ministry. Although the latest decision was rescinded, journalists revealed that the Catalan telecommunications agency was controlled by a former Huawei executive, raising concerns about the Generalitat’s most sensitive files. And even though most of the European Union has awakened to the danger of Chinese overcapacity, Spain chose to abstain on the vote regarding tariffs on electric vehicles and aims to attract up to nine Chinese manufacturing projects, some of them assembly plants. The proximity to China is striking given the government’s preference for moral policies: the repression of freedom of expression and religion in China has not elicited strong criticism in Madrid, nor has the abduction of entrepreneurs, nor the repeated threats against the Philippines or Japan over their territories and sovereign waters, which are allies of Spain.
United States
Spain’s relationship with the U.S. is at its worst since 2003. The government’s choice to prioritize morality over national interest has damaged Spain’s image in Washington. The frictions began with Madrid’s refusal to participate in the Prosperity Guardian operation against the Houthis who obstructed traffic through the Suez Canal, and have only escalated since. It is natural for two presidents of different ideologies to clash and for polarization to seek political gain. But with the U.S. being one of Spain’s most important allies, NATO being crucial to our security, and Washington seeking allies with niches of competitiveness, such as Japan in the Indo-Pacific or Poland against Russia, Spain can position itself as the preferred ally in North Africa and the Mediterranean.
Conclusion
Spain is a small country in a world of giants. The strategic interests of different great blocs propel them to clash; Spain must know how to dodge danger, but also be ready to meet any impact with resolve. The allocation of substantial political capital to matters of popularity has clouded the national interest. It is necessary to recalibrate this gap between interests and efforts.
